- Yang, Amy;
- Arndt, Daniel;
- Berg, Robert;
- Carpenter, Jessica;
- Chapman, Kevin;
- Dlugos, Dennis;
- Gallentine, William;
- Giza, Christopher;
- Goldstein, Joshua;
- Hahn, Cecil;
- Lerner, Jason;
- Loddenkemper, Tobias;
- Matsumoto, Joyce;
- Nash, Kendall;
- Payne, Eric;
- Sánchez Fernández, Iván;
- Shults, Justine;
- Topjian, Alexis;
- Williams, Korwyn;
- Wusthoff, Courtney;
- Abend, Nicholas
PURPOSE: Electrographic seizures are common in encephalopathic critically ill children, but identification requires continuous EEG monitoring (CEEG). Development of a seizure prediction model would enable more efficient use of limited CEEG resources. We aimed to develop and validate a seizure prediction model for use among encephalopathic critically ill children. METHOD: We developed a seizure prediction model using a retrospectively acquired multi-center database of children with acute encephalopathy without an epilepsy diagnosis, who underwent clinically indicated CEEG. We performed model validation using a separate prospectively acquired single center database. Predictor variables were chosen to be readily available to clinicians prior to the onset of CEEG and included: age, etiology category, clinical seizures prior to CEEG, initial EEG background category, and inter-ictal discharge category. RESULTS: The model has fair to good discrimination ability and overall performance. At the optimal cut-off point in the validation dataset, the model has a sensitivity of 59% and a specificity of 81%. Varied cut-off points could be chosen to optimize sensitivity or specificity depending on available CEEG resources. CONCLUSION: Despite inherent variability between centers, a model developed using multi-center CEEG data and few readily available variables could guide the use of limited CEEG resources when applied at a single center. Depending on CEEG resources, centers could choose lower cut-off points to maximize identification of all patients with seizures (but with more patients monitored) or higher cut-off points to reduce resource utilization by reducing monitoring of lower risk patients (but with failure to identify some patients with seizures).