BACKGROUND: Adult spinal deformity (ASD) represents a major cause of disability in the elderly population in the United States. Surgical intervention has been shown to reduce disability and pain in properly indicated patients. However, there is a small subset of patients in whom nonoperative treatment is also able to durably maintain or improve symptoms. OBJECTIVE: To examine the factors associated with successful nonoperative management in patients with ASD. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated a cohort of 207 patients with nonoperative ASD, stratified into 3 groups: (1) success, (2) no change, and (3) failure. Success was defined as a gain in minimal clinically importance difference in both Oswestry Disability Index and Scoliosis Research Society-Pain. Logistic regression model and conditional inference decision trees established cutoffs for success according to baseline (BL) frailty and sagittal vertical axis. RESULTS: In our cohort, 44.9% of patients experienced successful nonoperative treatment, 22.7% exhibited no change, and 32.4% failed. Successful nonoperative patients at BL were significantly younger, had a lower body mass index, decreased Charlson Comorbidity Index, lower frailty scores, lower rates of hypertension, obesity, depression, and neurological dysfunction (all P < .05) and significantly higher rates of grade 0 deformity for all Schwab modifiers (all P < .05). Conditional inference decision tree analysis determined that patients with a BL ASD-frailty index ≤ 1.579 (odds ratio: 8.3 [4.0-17.5], P < .001) were significantly more likely to achieve nonoperative success. CONCLUSION: Success of nonoperative treatment was more frequent among younger patients and those with less severe deformity and frailty at BL, with BL frailty the most important determinant factor. The factors presented here may be useful in informing preoperative discussion and clinical decision-making regarding treatment strategies.

Purpose

Evaluate the presence of new-onset cervical deformity (CD) in nonoperative adult spinal deformity (ASD) patients with extended follow-up, with consideration for predictors, prevalence, and impact on patient-reported outcomes.

Methods

Retrospective review of a prospective nonoperative ASD cohort. New onset CD patients at 1- (CD-1Y) and 2-year (CD-2Y) follow-up were defined as displaying baseline cervical alignment. Univariate analyses determined differences in radiographic parameters and outcome scores of CD and maintained-cervical-alignment patients. Multivariate binary logistic regression models determined new-onset CD predictors.

Results

A total of 143 patients were included (mean age 54 years, mean body mass index 25.6 kg/m², 86% female). Cervical deformity rate was 38.5% at baseline. New-onset CD incidence at 1- and 2-year follow-up was 30.0% and 41.7%, respectively. Global sagittal profile comparison of CD-1Y/CD-2Y versus maintained cervical alignment cases revealed no differences (P > .05) at any interval. Baseline C2-C7 sagittal vertical axis (SVA) was associated with increased new-onset CD risk at 1 (odds ratio [OR] 1.14, P = .025) and 2 years (OR 1.04, P = .032); prior spine surgical history was associated with CD risk at 1-year follow-up (OR 6.75, P = .047); baseline C2 slope was associated with increased CD risk at 2-year follow-up (OR 1.12, P = .041). CD development did not significantly impact health-related quality of life (P > .05).

Conclusions

Cervical deformity can manifest in nonoperative ASD patients: 30.0% at 1-year follow-up, and 41.7% at 2-year follow-up. Progressive CD manifested independently of thoracolumbar profile changes. Increased baseline C2-C7 SVA, C2 slope, and prior surgical history increased new-onset CD odds at 1 and 2 years.