The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the implications of these trends for transportation planning. More extensive discussions of the first nine trends and the issues they raise can be found in the detailed papers that follow this summary. The last three topics are not addressed in later papers here; separate studies are being conducted on these topics.

This paper and the papers it summarizes are intended to provide a review of key literature as well as background information and data on the topics covered. We clearly do not attempt to cover every possible trend that could affect the pace or location of growth and change in California – we do not discuss, for example, the possible effects of recession, competing demands for water, or whether the current problems with the state’s electric power supply will be lasting. Nor are the papers designed to offer policy advice, although we do sometimes suggest interpretations of the data that have policy significance. Finally, each paper is written to stand on its own as a summary of trends and issues for the particular topic it addresses. In preparing the individual papers, we have drawn upon a variety of sources and reflect sometimes-differing perspectives and interpretations of events and possibilities, as does the literature on the topics. We have not attempted to force consensus across the papers when it does not exist in the literature and data. We nevertheless hope that the materials here will stimulate discussion and further analysis as California transportation plans are being developed.

This paper presents an overview of a dozen trends that have potentially significant consequences for California and its transportation plan for the next twenty years. The twelve trends discussed in the paper are:

1. A Growing Population

2. Demographic Change

3. New Patterns of Employment

4. Housing Location, Type, and Affordability

5. Change in the Central Valley

6. Changing Passenger and Household Travel Demand

7. Changing Patterns of Freight Transport

8. New Technologies

9. The Environment

10. Equity and Participation

11. Sustainable Transportation

12. The Funding Dilemma