OBJECTIVES: Tools are needed to evaluate the risk of developing Parkinson disease (PD) in at-risk populations. In this study, we examine differences in alpha-synuclein seed amplification assay (αSyn-SAA) qualitative results and amplification parameters between nonmanifesting carriers (NMCs) of PD-related pathogenic variants, prodromal PD, and PD and the risk of developing a synucleinopathy in participants with prodromal PD. METHODS: Cross-sectional and longitudinal CSF αSyn-SAA results from participants in the Parkinsons Progression Markers Initiative were analyzed. αSyn-SAA positivity and amplification parameters (maximum fluorescence [Fmax], time-to-threshold [TTT], time-to-50% Fmax [T50], and area under the curve [AUC]) were compared between NMCs, participants with prodromal PD, and participants with PD, and their relationship with the likelihood of phenoconversion in participants with prodromal PD was investigated. RESULTS: Samples from 1,027 participants were analyzed (159 healthy controls [HCs], 247 NMCs, 96 participants with prodromal PD, and 525 participants with PD). TTT and T50 were faster, and AUC was higher in αSyn-SAA+ participants with prodromal PD and PD than αSyn-SAA+ NMCs and HC participants (Kruskal-Wallis χ2 = 4.15-13.96, p < 0.0002-0.04). Participants with prodromal PD with positive αSyn-SAA tests and faster TTT had higher rates of phenoconversion (log-rank p = 0.001 and log-rank test-for-trend p < 0.0001). There were no changes in 48 participants with prodromal PD with longitudinal assays. DISCUSSION: αSyn-SAA positivity and faster seed amplification are associated with a greater risk of developing PD in at-risk individuals and may aid in predicting phenoconversion.

Objectives

Tools are needed to evaluate the risk of developing Parkinson disease (PD) in at-risk populations. In this study, we examine differences in alpha-synuclein seed amplification assay (αSyn-SAA) qualitative results and amplification parameters between nonmanifesting carriers (NMCs) of PD-related pathogenic variants, prodromal PD, and PD and the risk of developing a synucleinopathy in participants with prodromal PD.

Methods

Cross-sectional and longitudinal CSF αSyn-SAA results from participants in the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative were analyzed. αSyn-SAA positivity and amplification parameters (maximum fluorescence [Fmax], time-to-threshold [TTT], time-to-50% Fmax [T50], and area under the curve [AUC]) were compared between NMCs, participants with prodromal PD, and participants with PD, and their relationship with the likelihood of phenoconversion in participants with prodromal PD was investigated.

Results

Samples from 1,027 participants were analyzed (159 healthy controls [HCs], 247 NMCs, 96 participants with prodromal PD, and 525 participants with PD). TTT and T50 were faster, and AUC was higher in αSyn-SAA+ participants with prodromal PD and PD than αSyn-SAA+ NMCs and HC participants (Kruskal-Wallis χ² = 4.15-13.96, p < 0.0002-0.04). Participants with prodromal PD with positive αSyn-SAA tests and faster TTT had higher rates of phenoconversion (log-rank p = 0.001 and log-rank test-for-trend p < 0.0001). There were no changes in 48 participants with prodromal PD with longitudinal assays.

Discussion

αSyn-SAA positivity and faster seed amplification are associated with a greater risk of developing PD in at-risk individuals and may aid in predicting phenoconversion.