Our beliefs guide our actions. But do potential actions also
guide our beliefs? Three experiments tested whether people
use pragmatist principles in fixing their beliefs, by
examining situations in which the evidence is
indeterminate between an innocuous and a dire explanation
that necessitate different actions. According to classical
decision theory, a person should favor a prudent course of
action in such cases, but should nonetheless be agnostic in
belief between the two explanations. Contradicting this
position, participants believed the dire explanation to be
more probable when the evidence was ambiguous. Further,
when the evidence favored either an innocuous or a dire
explanation, evidence favoring the dire explanation led to
stronger beliefs compared to evidence favoring the
innocuous explanation. These results challenge classic
theories of the relationship between belief and action,
suggesting that our system for belief fixation is sensitive to
the utility of potential beliefs for taking subsequent action