Observers often judge agents who miss a desired outcome by a
small, compared to a large, margin to be less happy. This nearmiss
effect has typically been examined in situations where
the agents have control over outcomes (e.g., missing a flight).
Here, we extend this work in three ways. First, we show
that near-miss effects play into observers’ intuitive theories of
emotion even for randomly-determined outcomes over which
agents demonstrably have no control. Second, we find data
consistent with a hypothesis in which—even in randomly determined
cases—near-miss effects reflect an illusion of control
over those events. Finally, we integrate near-miss effects into a
broader model of affective cognition, and quantify the psychological
cost of a missing a desired outcome by relatively little
distance, relative to winning or losing that outcome