Background

Opioid agonist therapy (OAT) uptake has been associated with multiple positive health outcomes among people who inject drugs (PWID). This study evaluated the pattern of OAT uptake among PWID in two consecutive national bio-behavioral surveillance surveys (2010 and 2014) in Iran.

Methods

Data were obtained from two national bio-behavioral surveillance surveys (N₂₀₁₀ = 1783 and N₂₀₁₄ = 2166) implemented using convenience sampling at the harm reduction facilities and street venues in 10 geographically diverse urban centers across Iran. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to determine the correlates of OAT uptake for the 2014 survey, and adjusted odds ratios (AORs) along with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported.

Results

The prevalence of OAT uptake decreased from 49.2% in 2010 to 45.8% in 2014 (P value = 0.033). OAT uptake varied across the studied cities ranging from 0.0 to 69.3% in the 2010 survey and 3.2 to 75.5% in the 2014 survey. Ever being married (AOR = 1.40; 95% CI 1.12, 1.75), having a history of incarceration (AOR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.16, 2.09), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sero-positivity (AOR = 1.63; 95% CI 1.08, 2.50) were associated with OAT uptake. Conversely, PWID who reported using only non-opioid drugs (AOR = 0.43; 95% CI 0.26, 0.71) and those who reported concurrent use of opioid and non-opioid drugs (AOR = 0.66; 95% CI 0.51, 0.86) were less likely to uptake OAT.

Conclusions

Although OAT uptake among PWID in Iran is above the 40% threshold defined by the World Health Organization, there remain significant disparities across urban settings in Iran. Importantly, the OAT services appear to be serving high-risk PWID including those living with HIV and those with a history of incarceration. Evaluating service integration including mental health, HIV and hepatitis C virus care, and other harm reduction services may support the optimization of health outcomes associated with OAT across Iran.

Background

Iran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-19 related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios.

Methods

We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: 0% isolation, through E: 40% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Results

Under scenario A, we estimated 5 196 000 (UI 1 753 000-10 220 000) infections to happen till mid-June with 966 000 (UI 467 800-1 702 000) hospitalizations and 111 000 (UI 53 400-200 000) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by 90% (ie, 550 000) and change the epidemic peak from 66 000 on June 9, to 9400 on March 1, 2020. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by 92% (ie, 74 500), and deaths by 93% (ie, 7800).

Conclusion

With no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of 40% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-19 in Iran by 90% by mid-June.