Causal systems often include mutually exclusive events: events
which cannot occur simultaneously. However, when events in
a causal system are exclusive, the normative properties of the
whole system change substantially. Are adults sensitive to the
consequences of exclusivity for causal reasoning? Here, we
systematically manipulated common-effect causal systems to
have either exclusive or non-exclusive causes while holding all
other factors constant. Adults showed a rich understanding of
exclusive systems in making both predictive (Experiment 1)
and diagnostic (Experiments 2 and 3) causal inferences.
Adults’ success in these tasks suggests that exclusivity is an
important dimension in human causal reasoning.