To determine the role of CD8(+) T cells in controlling simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) replication in vivo, we examined the effect of depleting this cell population using an anti-CD8 monoclonal antibody, OKT8F. There was on average a 99.9% reduction of CD8 cells in peripheral blood in six infected Macaca mulatta treated with OKT8F. The apparent CD8 depletion started 1 h after antibody administration, and low CD8 levels were maintained until day 8. An increase in plasma viremia of one to three orders of magnitude was observed in five of the six macaques. The injection of a control antibody to an infected macaque did not induce a sustained viral load increase, nor did it significantly reduce the number of CD8(+) T cells. These results demonstrate that CD8 cells play a crucial role in suppressing SIV replication in vivo.

Background

HIV-1 set point viral load (SPVL) is a highly variable trait that influences disease progression and transmission risk. Men who are exclusively insertive (EI) during anal intercourse require more sexual contacts to become infected than exclusively receptive (ER) men. Thus, we hypothesize that EIs are more likely to acquire their viruses from highly infectious partners (i.e., with high SPVLs) and to have higher SPVLs than infected ERs.

Methods

We used a one-generation Bernoulli model, a dynamic network model, and data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) to examine whether and under what circumstances MSM differ in SPVL by sexual role.

Results

Both models predicted higher SPVLs in EIs than role versatile (RV) or ER men, but only in scenarios where longer-term relationships predominated. ER and RV men displayed similar SPVLs. EI men remained far less likely than ER men to become infected, however. When the MACS data were limited by some estimates of lower sex partner counts (a proxy for longer relationships), EI men had higher SPVLs; these differences were clinically relevant (>0.3 log₁₀ copies/mL) and statistically significant (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

Mode of acquisition may be an important aspect of SPVL evolution in MSM, with clinical implications.

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.