The Experiment to Detect the Global Epoch of Reionization Signature (EDGES) recently reported a strong 21-cm absorption signal relative to the cosmic microwave background at $z \sim 18$. While its anomalous amplitude may indicate new physics, in this work we focus on the timing of the signal, as it alone provides an important constraint on galaxy formation models. Whereas rest-frame ultraviolet luminosity functions (UVLFs) over a broad range of redshifts are well fit by simple models in which galaxy star formation histories track the assembly of dark matter halos, we find that these same models, with reasonable assumptions about X-ray production in star-forming galaxies, cannot generate a narrow absorption trough at $z \sim 18$. If verified, the EDGES signal therefore requires the fundamental inputs of galaxy formation models to evolve rapidly at $z \gtrsim 10$. Unless extremely faint sources residing in halos below the atomic cooling threshold are responsible for the EDGES signal, star formation in $\sim 10^8$-$10^{10} \ M_{\odot}$ halos must be more efficient than expected, implying that the faint-end of the UVLF at $M_{\mathrm{UV}} \lesssim -12$ must steepen at the highest redshifts. This steepening provides a concrete test for future galaxy surveys with the James Webb Space Telescope and ongoing efforts in lensed fields, and is required regardless of whether the amplitude of the EDGES signal is due to new cooling channels or a strong radio background in the early Universe. However, the radio background solution requires that galaxies at $z > 15$ emit 1-2 GHz photons with an efficiency $\sim 10^3$ times greater than local star-forming galaxies, posing a challenge for models of low-frequency photon production in the early Universe.

Motivated by recent progress in studies of the high-$z$ Universe, we build a new model for the global 21-cm signal that is explicitly calibrated to measurements of the galaxy luminosity function (LF) and further tuned to match the Thomson scattering optical depth of the cosmic microwave background, $\tau_e$. Assuming that the $z \lesssim 8$ galaxy population can be smoothly extrapolated to higher redshifts, the recent decline in best-fit values of $\tau_e$ and the inefficient heating induced by X-ray binaries (HMXBs; the presumptive sources of the X-ray background at high-$z$) imply that the entirety of cosmic reionization and reheating occurs at redshifts $z \lesssim 12$. In contrast to past global 21-cm models, whose $z \sim 20$ ($ u \sim 70$ MHz) absorption features and strong $\sim 25$ mK emission features were driven largely by the assumption of efficient early star-formation and X-ray heating, our new fiducial model peaks in absorption at $ u \sim 110$ MHz at a depth of $\sim -160$ mK and has a negligible emission component. As a result, a strong emission signal would provide convincing evidence that HMXBs are not the only drivers of cosmic reheating. Shallow absorption troughs should accompany strong heating scenarios, but could also be caused by a low escape fraction of Lyman-Werner photons. Generating signals with troughs at $ u \lesssim 95$ MHz requires a floor in the star-formation efficiency in halos below $\sim 10^{9} M_{\odot}$, which is equivalent to steepening the faint-end of the galaxy LF. These findings demonstrate that the global 21-cm signal is a powerful complement to current and future galaxy surveys and efforts to better understand the interstellar medium in high-$z$ galaxies.

ABSTRACT: We investigate the effects of Population III (Pop III) stars and their remnants on the cosmological 21-cm global signal. By combining a semi-analytic model of Pop III star formation with a global 21-cm simulation code, we investigate how X-ray and radio emission from accreting Pop III black holes may affect both the timing and depth of the 21-cm absorption feature that follows the initial onset of star formation during the Cosmic Dawn. We compare our results to the findings of the EDGES experiment, which has reported the first detection of a cosmic 21-cm signal. In general, we find that our fiducial Pop III models, which have peak star formation rate densities of ∼10−4 M⊙ yr−1 Mpc−3 between z ∼ 10 and z ∼ 15, are able to match the timing of the EDGES signal quite well, in contrast to models that ignore Pop III stars. To match the unexpectedly large depth of the EDGES signal without recourse to exotic physics, we vary the parameters of emission from accreting black holes (formed as Pop III remnants) including the intrinsic strength of X-ray and radio emission as well as the local column density of neutral gas. We find that models with strong radio emission and relatively weak X-ray emission can self-consistently match the EDGES signal, though this solution requires fine-tuning. We are only able to produce signals with sharp features similar to the EDGES signal if the Pop III IMF is peaked narrowly around $140 \, \mathrm{M}_\odot$.

We present a semi-analytic model of star formation in the early universe, beginning with the first metal-free stars. By employing a completely feedback-limited star formation prescription, stars form at maximum efficiency until the self-consistently calculated feedback processes halt formation. We account for a number of feedback processes including a meta-galactic Lyman-Werner background, supernovae, photoionization, and chemical feedback. Halos are evolved combining mass accretion rates found through abundance matching with our feedback-limited star formation prescription, allowing for a variety of Population III (Pop III) initial mass functions (IMFs). We find that, for a number of models, massive Pop III star formation can continue on until at least $z \sim 20$ and potentially past $z \sim 6$ at rates of around $10^{-4}$ to $10^{-5}$ M$_\odot$ yr$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-3}$, assuming these stars form in isolation. At this point Lyman-Werner feedback pushes the minimum halo mass for star formation above the atomic cooling threshold, cutting off the formation of massive Pop III stars. We find that, in most models, Pop II and Pop III star formation co-exist over cosmological time-scales, with the total star formation rate density and resulting radiation background strongly dominated by the former before Pop III star formation finally ends. These halos form at most $\sim 10^3$ M$_\odot$ of massive Pop III stars during this phase and typically have absolute magnitudes in the range of $M_\text{AB} = -5 $ to $ -10$. We also briefly discuss how future observations from telescopes such as JWST or WFIRST and 21-cm experiments may be able to constrain unknown parameters in our model such as the IMF, star formation prescription, or the physics of massive Pop III stars.

The redshifted 21 cm monopole is expected to be a powerful probe of the epoch of the first stars and galaxies (10 < z < 35). The global 21 cm signal is sensitive to the thermal and ionization state of hydrogen gas and thus provides a tracer of sources of energetic photons-primarily hot stars and accreting black holes-which ionize and heat the high redshift intergalactic medium (IGM). This paper presents a strategy for observations of the global spectrum with a realizable instrument placed in a low-altitude lunar orbit, performing night-time 40-120 MHz spectral observations, while on the farside to avoid terrestrial radio frequency interference, ionospheric corruption, and solar radio emissions. The frequency structure, uniformity over large scales, and unpolarized state of the redshifted 21 cm spectrum are distinct from the spectrally featureless, spatially varying, and polarized emission from the bright foregrounds. This allows a clean separation between the primordial signal and foregrounds. For signal extraction, we model the foreground, instrument, and 21 cm spectrum with eigenmodes calculated via Singular Value Decomposition analyses. Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to explore the parameter space defined by the coefficients associated with these modes, we illustrate how the spectrum can be measured and how astrophysical parameters (e.g., IGM properties, first star characteristics) can be constrained in the presence of foregrounds using the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE).

In this white paper, we lay out a US roadmap for high-redshift 21 cm cosmology (30 < z < 6) in the 2020s. Beginning with the currently-funded HERA and MWA Phase II projects and advancing through the decade with a coordinated program of small-scale instrumentation, software, and analysis projects targeting technology development, this roadmap incorporates our current best understanding of the systematics confronting 21 cm cosmology into a plan for overcoming them, enabling next-generation, mid-scale 21 cm arrays to be proposed late in the decade. Submitted for consideration by the Astro2020 Decadal Survey Program Panel for Radio, Millimeter, and Submillimeter Observations from the Ground as a Medium-Sized Project.

Cosmic dawn and the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) are among the least explored observational eras in cosmology: a time at which the first galaxies and supermassive black holes formed and reionized the cold, neutral Universe of the post-recombination era. With current instruments, only a handful of the brightest galaxies and quasars from that time are detectable as individual objects, due to their extreme distances. Fortunately, a multitude of multi-wavelength intensity mapping measurements, ranging from the redshifted 21 cm background in the radio to the unresolved X-ray background, contain a plethora of synergistic information about this elusive era. The coming decade will likely see direct detections of inhomogenous reionization with CMB and 21 cm observations, and a slew of other probes covering overlapping areas and complementary physical processes will provide crucial additional information and cross-validation. To maximize scientific discovery and return on investment, coordinated survey planning and joint data analysis should be a high priority, closely coupled to computational models and theoretical predictions.