Abstract: The study investigates a tension between affirmative action scholars who hypothesize that affirmative action bans would increase underrepresented minority students’ STEM college completions and scholars who have empirically estimated declines. It also questions results that that find no existence of a STEM penalty (compared to non-STEM) caused by affirmative action bans and finds that a STEM penalty is likely, but varies from a very modest effect (using the Department of Homeland Security taxonomy) to a more substantial impact (using the National Science Foundation taxonomy). This study finds that many of the tensions between affirmative action scholars studying STEM are likely the product of model specification. It illustrates how the following have impacted the estimates: the period studied, the inclusion and exclusion of certain ban states, the measure of institutional selectivity, and most importantly, the taxonomy of STEM. Furthermore, this study builds upon prior studies by analyzing private schools and the shorter-term and longer-term impacts of the bans.

This policy brief provides an overview of what is known about the impact of these bans nationally and complements research specific to California (see, for example, Kidder 2020). It includes: admission of highly qualified applicants, racial and ethnic diversity in higher education at highly selective and less selective institutions, ethnic and racial diversity in graduate fields of study, STEM degrees, faculty diversity, and the way that colleges and universities have attempted to compensate for the absence of affirmative action.

The study examines the growth of gentrification in California and its impact on schools and educational opportunities in the state. The study highlights the complex connections between gentrification, school choice, and school segregation patterns, finding the relationship between gentrification and local elementary schools largely depends on the specific city and community being gentrified. Statewide, gentrified neighborhoods have become more racially and economically diverse compared to those that did not gentrify, but the analysis finds only modest changes in local schools.