The evolution of host immunity occurs in the context of the microbiome, but little theory exists to predict how resistance against pathogens might be influenced by the need to tolerate and regulate commensal microbiota. We present a general model to explore the optimal investment in host immunity under conditions in which the host can, versus cannot easily distinguish among commensal versus pathogenic bacteria, and when commensal microbiota can, versus cannot protect the host against the impacts of pathogen infection. We find that a loss of immune vigilance associated with innate immunity over evolutionary time can occur due to the challenge of discriminating between pathogenic and other microbe species. Further, we find the greater the protective effect of microbiome species, acting either directly or via competition with a pathogen, or the higher the costs of immunity, the more likely the loss of immune vigilance is. Conversely, this effect can be reversed when pathogens increase host mortality. Generally, the magnitude of costs of immunity required to allow evolution of decreased immune vigilance are predicted to be lowest when microbiome and pathogen species most resemble each other (in terms of host recognition), and when immune effects on the pathogen are weak. Our model framework makes explicit the core trade-offs likely to shape the evolution of immunity in the context of microbiome/pathogen discrimination. We discuss how this informs interpretation of patterns and process in natural systems, including vulnerability to pathogen emergence.

The evolution of host immunity occurs in the context of the microbiome, but little theory exists to predict how resistance against pathogens might be influenced by the need to tolerate and regulate commensal microbiota. We present a general model to explore the optimal investment in host immunity under conditions in which the host can, versus cannot easily distinguish among commensal versus pathogenic bacteria, and when commensal microbiota can, versus cannot protect the host against the impacts of pathogen infection. We find that a loss of immune vigilance associated with innate immunity over evolutionary time can occur due to the challenge of discriminating between pathogenic and other microbe species. Further, we find the greater the protective effect of microbiome species, acting either directly or via competition with a pathogen, or the higher the costs of immunity, the more likely the loss of immune vigilance is. Conversely, this effect can be reversed when pathogens increase host mortality. Generally, the magnitude of costs of immunity required to allow evolution of decreased immune vigilance are predicted to be lowest when microbiome and pathogen species most resemble each other (in terms of host recognition), and when immune effects on the pathogen are weak. Our model framework makes explicit the core trade-offs likely to shape the evolution of immunity in the context of microbiome/pathogen discrimination. We discuss how this informs interpretation of patterns and process in natural systems, including vulnerability to pathogen emergence.

The absence of microbial exposure early in life leaves individuals vulnerable to immune overreaction later in life, manifesting as immunopathology, autoimmunity, or allergies. A key factor is thought to be a "critical window" during which the host's immune system can "learn" tolerance, and beyond which learning is no longer possible. Animal models indicate that many mechanisms have evolved to enable critical windows, and that their time limits are distinct and consistent. Such a variety of mechanisms, and precision in their manifestation suggest the outcome of strong evolutionary selection. To strengthen our understanding of critical windows, we explore their underlying evolutionary ecology using models encompassing demographic and epidemiological transitions, identifying the length of the critical window that would maximize fitness in different environments. We characterize how direct effects of microbes on host mortality, but also indirect effects via microbial ecology, will drive the optimal length of the critical window. We find that indirect effects such as magnitude of transmission, duration of infection, rates of reinfection, vertical transmission, host demography, and seasonality in transmission all have the effect of redistributing the timing and/or likelihood of encounters with microbial taxa across age, and thus increasing or decreasing the optimal length of the critical window. Declining microbial population abundance and diversity are predicted to result in increases in immune dysfunction later in life. We also make predictions for the length of the critical window across different taxa and environments. Overall, our modeling efforts demonstrate how critical windows will be impacted over evolution as a function of both host-microbiome/pathogen interactions and dispersal, raising central questions about potential mismatches between these evolved systems and the current loss of microbial diversity and/or increases in infectious disease.

Background

Host genetics can shape microbiome composition, but to what extent it does, remains unclear. Like any other complex trait, this important question can be addressed by estimating the heritability (h²) of the microbiome-the proportion of variance in the abundance in each taxon that is attributable to host genetic variation. However, unlike most complex traits, microbiome heritability is typically based on relative abundance data, where taxon-specific abundances are expressed as the proportion of the total microbial abundance in a sample.

Results

We derived an analytical approximation for the heritability that one obtains when using such relative, and not absolute, abundances, based on an underlying quantitative genetic model for absolute abundances. Based on this, we uncovered three problems that can arise when using relative abundances to estimate microbiome heritability: (1) the interdependency between taxa can lead to imprecise heritability estimates. This problem is most apparent for dominant taxa. (2) Large sample size leads to high false discovery rates. With enough statistical power, the result is a strong overestimation of the number of heritable taxa in a community. (3) Microbial co-abundances lead to biased heritability estimates.

Conclusions

We discuss several potential solutions for advancing the field, focusing on technical and statistical developments, and conclude that caution must be taken when interpreting heritability estimates and comparing values across studies. Video Abstract.

The timing of life history events has important fitness consequences. Since the 1950s, researchers have combined first principles and data to predict the optimal timing of life history transitions. Recently, a striking mystery has emerged. Such transitions can be shaped by a completely different branch of the tree of life: species in the microbiome. Probing these interactions using testable predictions from evolutionary theory could illuminate whether and how host-microbiome integrated life histories can evolve and be maintained. Beyond advancing fundamental science, this research program could yield important applications. In an age of microbiome engineering, understanding the contexts that lead to microbiota signaling shaping ontogeny could offer novel mechanisms for manipulations to increase yield in agriculture by manipulating plant responses to stressful environments, or to reduce pathogen transmission by affecting vector efficiency. We combine theory and evidence to illuminate the essential questions underlying the existence of microbiome-dependent ontogenetic timing (MiDOT) to fuel research on this emerging topic.

There is increasing interest in the plant microbiome as it relates to both plant health and agricultural sustainability. One key unanswered question is whether we can select for a plant microbiome that is robust after colonization of target hosts. We used a successive passaging experiment to address this question by selecting upon the tomato phyllosphere microbiome. Beginning with a diverse microbial community generated from field-grown tomato plants, we inoculated replicate plants across 5 plant genotypes for 4 45-d passages, sequencing the microbial community at each passage. We observed consistent shifts in both the bacterial (16S amplicon sequencing) and fungal (internal transcribed spacer region amplicon sequencing) communities across replicate lines over time, as well as a general loss of diversity over the course of the experiment, suggesting that much of the naturally observed microbial community in the phyllosphere is likely transient or poorly adapted within the experimental setting. We found that both host genotype and environment shape microbial composition, but the relative importance of genotype declines through time. Furthermore, using a community coalescence experiment, we found that the bacterial community from the end of the experiment was robust to invasion by the starting bacterial community. These results highlight that selecting for a stable microbiome that is well adapted to a particular host environment is indeed possible, emphasizing the great potential of this approach in agriculture and beyond. In light of the consistent response of the microbiome to selection in the absence of reciprocal host evolution (coevolution) described here, future studies should address how such adaptation influences host health.

There is increasing interest in the plant microbiome as it relates to both plant health and agricultural sustainability. One key unanswered question is whether we can select for a plant microbiome that is robust after colonization of target hosts. We used a successive passaging experiment to address this question by selecting upon the tomato phyllosphere microbiome. Beginning with a diverse microbial community generated from field-grown tomato plants, we inoculated replicate plants across 5 plant genotypes for 4 45-d passages, sequencing the microbial community at each passage. We observed consistent shifts in both the bacterial (16S amplicon sequencing) and fungal (internal transcribed spacer region amplicon sequencing) communities across replicate lines over time, as well as a general loss of diversity over the course of the experiment, suggesting that much of the naturally observed microbial community in the phyllosphere is likely transient or poorly adapted within the experimental setting. We found that both host genotype and environment shape microbial composition, but the relative importance of genotype declines through time. Furthermore, using a community coalescence experiment, we found that the bacterial community from the end of the experiment was robust to invasion by the starting bacterial community. These results highlight that selecting for a stable microbiome that is well adapted to a particular host environment is indeed possible, emphasizing the great potential of this approach in agriculture and beyond. In light of the consistent response of the microbiome to selection in the absence of reciprocal host evolution (coevolution) described here, future studies should address how such adaptation influences host health.

The timing of life history events has important fitness consequences. Since the 1950s, researchers have combined first principles and data to predict the optimal timing of life history transitions. Recently, a striking mystery has emerged. Such transitions can be shaped by a completely different branch of the tree of life: species in the microbiome. Probing these interactions using testable predictions from evolutionary theory could illuminate whether and how host-microbiome integrated life histories can evolve and be maintained. Beyond advancing fundamental science, this research program could yield important applications. In an age of microbiome engineering, understanding the contexts that lead to microbiota signaling shaping ontogeny could offer novel mechanisms for manipulations to increase yield in agriculture by manipulating plant responses to stressful environments, or to reduce pathogen transmission by affecting vector efficiency. We combine theory and evidence to illuminate the essential questions underlying the existence of microbiome-dependent ontogenetic timing (MiDOT) to fuel research on this emerging topic.

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress.