Introduction

Current efforts to reduce dementia focus on prevention and risk reduction by targeting modifiable risk factors. As dementia and cardiometabolic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) share risk factors, a single risk-estimating tool for dementia and multiple NCDs could be cost-effective and facilitate concurrent assessments as compared with a conventional single approach. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a new risk tool that estimates an individual's risk of developing dementia and other NCDs including diabetes mellitus, stroke and myocardial infarction. Once validated, it could be used by the public and general practitioners.

Methods and analysis

Ten high-quality cohort studies from multiple countries were identified, which met eligibility criteria, including large representative samples, long-term follow-up, data on clinical diagnoses of dementia and NCDs, recognised modifiable risk factors for the four NCDs and mortality data. Pooled harmonised data from the cohorts will be used, with 65% randomly allocated for development of the predictive model and 35% for testing. Predictors include sociodemographic characteristics, general health risk factors and lifestyle/behavioural risk factors. A subdistribution hazard model will assess the risk factors' contribution to the outcome, adjusting for competing mortality risks. Point-based scoring algorithms will be built using predictor weights, internally validated and the discriminative ability and calibration of the model will be assessed for the outcomes. Sensitivity analyses will include recalculating risk scores using logistic regression.

Ethics and dissemination

Ethics approval is provided by the University of New South Wales Human Research Ethics Committee (UNSW HREC; protocol numbers HC200515, HC3413). All data are deidentified and securely stored on servers at Neuroscience Research Australia. Study findings will be presented at conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. The tool will be accessible as a public health resource. Knowledge translation and implementation work will explore strategies to apply the tool in clinical practice.

Limbic-predominant age-related TDP-43 encephalopathy neuropathologic change (LATE-NC) and Alzheimer's disease neuropathologic change (ADNC) are each associated with substantial cognitive impairment in aging populations. However, the prevalence of LATE-NC across the full range of ADNC remains uncertain. To address this knowledge gap, neuropathologic, genetic, and clinical data were compiled from 13 high-quality community- and population-based longitudinal studies. Participants were recruited from United States (8 cohorts, including one focusing on Japanese-American men), United Kingdom (2 cohorts), Brazil, Austria, and Finland. The total number of participants included was 6196, and the average age of death was 88.1 years. Not all data were available on each individual and there were differences between the cohorts in study designs and the amount of missing data. Among those with known cognitive status before death (n = 5665), 43.0% were cognitively normal, 14.9% had MCI, and 42.4% had dementia-broadly consistent with epidemiologic data in this age group. Approximately 99% of participants (n = 6125) had available CERAD neuritic amyloid plaque score data. In this subsample, 39.4% had autopsy-confirmed LATE-NC of any stage. Among brains with "frequent" neuritic amyloid plaques, 54.9% had comorbid LATE-NC, whereas in brains with no detected neuritic amyloid plaques, 27.0% had LATE-NC. Data on LATE-NC stages were available for 3803 participants, of which 25% had LATE-NC stage > 1 (associated with cognitive impairment). In the subset of individuals with Thal Aβ phase = 0 (lacking detectable Aβ plaques), the brains with LATE-NC had relatively more severe primary age-related tauopathy (PART). A total of 3267 participants had available clinical data relevant to frontotemporal dementia (FTD), and none were given the clinical diagnosis of definite FTD nor the pathological diagnosis of frontotemporal lobar degeneration with TDP-43 inclusions (FTLD-TDP). In the 10 cohorts with detailed neurocognitive assessments proximal to death, cognition tended to be worse with LATE-NC across the full spectrum of ADNC severity. This study provided a credible estimate of the current prevalence of LATE-NC in advanced age. LATE-NC was seen in almost 40% of participants and often, but not always, coexisted with Alzheimer's disease neuropathology.

We aimed to examine the relationship between Apolipoprotein E ε4 (APOE*4) carriage on cognitive decline, and whether these associations were moderated by sex, baseline age, ethnicity, and vascular risk factors. Participants were 19,225 individuals aged 54-103 years from 15 longitudinal cohort studies with a mean follow-up duration ranging between 1.2 and 10.7 years. Two-step individual participant data meta-analysis was used to pool results of study-wise analyses predicting memory and general cognitive decline from carriage of one or two APOE*4 alleles, and moderation of these associations by age, sex, vascular risk factors, and ethnicity. Separate pooled estimates were calculated in both men and women who were younger (ie, 62 years) and older (ie, 80 years) at baseline. Results showed that APOE*4 carriage was related to faster general cognitive decline in women, and faster memory decline in men. A stronger dose-dependent effect was observed in older men, with faster general cognitive and memory decline in those carrying two versus one APOE*4 allele. Vascular risk factors were related to an increased effect of APOE*4 on memory decline in younger women, but a weaker effect of APOE*4 on general cognitive decline in older men. The relationship between APOE*4 carriage and memory decline was larger in older-aged Asians than Whites. In sum, APOE*4 is related to cognitive decline in men and women, although these effects are enhanced by age and carriage of two APOE*4 alleles in men, a higher numbers of vascular risk factors during the early stages of late adulthood in women, and Asian ethnicity.

Background

We examined how the relationship between education and latelife cognitive impairment (defined as a Mini Mental State Examination score below 24) is influenced by age, sex, ethnicity, and Apolipoprotein E epsilon 4 (APOE*4).

Methods

Participants were 30,785 dementia-free individuals aged 55-103 years, from 18 longitudinal cohort studies, with an average follow-up ranging between 2 and 10 years. Pooled hazard ratios were obtained from multilevel parametric survival analyses predicting cognitive impairment (CI) from education and its interactions with baseline age, sex, APOE*4 and ethnicity. In separate models, education was treated as continuous (years) and categorical, with participants assigned to one of four education completion levels: Incomplete Elementary; Elementary; Middle; and High School.

Results

Compared to Elementary, Middle (HR = 0.645, P = 0.004) and High School (HR = 0.472, P < 0.001) education were related to reduced CI risk. The decreased risk of CI associated with Middle education weakened with older baseline age (HR = 1.029, P = 0.056) and was stronger in women than men (HR = 1.309, P = 0.001). The association between High School and lowered CI risk, however, was not moderated by sex or baseline age, but was stronger in Asians than Whites (HR = 1.047, P = 0.044), and significant among Asian (HR = 0.34, P < 0.001) and Black (HR = 0.382, P = 0.016), but not White, APOE*4 carriers.

Conclusion

High School completion may reduce risk of CI associated with advancing age and APOE*4. The observed ethnoregional differences in this effect are potentially due to variations in social, economic, and political outcomes associated with educational attainment, in combination with neurobiological and genetic differences, and warrant further study.