Abstract: In order to investigate snowpack sensitivity to temperature increases and end‐member atmospheric moisture conditions, we applied a well‐constrained energy‐ and mass‐balance snow model across the full elevation range of seasonal snowpack using forcing data from recent wet and dry years. Humidity scenarios examined were constant relative humidity (high) and constant vapor pressure between storms (low). With minimum calibration, model results captured the observed magnitude and timing of snowmelt. April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) losses of 38%, 73%, and 90% with temperature increases of 2, 4, and 6°C in a dry year centered on areas of greatest SWE accumulation. Each 2°C increment of warming also resulted in seasonal snowline moving upslope by 300 m. The zone of maximum melt was compressed upward 100–500 m with 6°C warming, with the range reflecting differences in basin hypsometry. Melt contribution by elevations below 2,000 m disappeared with 4°C warming. The constant‐relative‐humidity scenario resulted in 0–100 mm less snowpack in late spring vs. the constant‐vapor‐pressure scenario in a wet year, a difference driven by increased thermal radiation (+1.2 W/m2) and turbulent energy fluxes (+1.2 W/m2) to the snowpack for the constant‐relative‐humidity case. Loss of snowpack storage and potential increases in forest evapotranspiration due to warming will result in a substantial shift in forest water balance and present major challenges to land management in this mountainous region.

A network of sensors for spatially representative water-balance measurements was developed and deployed across the 2000 km2 snow-dominated portion of the upper American River basin, primarily to measure changes in snowpack and soil-water storage, air temperature, and humidity. This wireless sensor network (WSN) consists of 14 sensor clusters, each with 10 measurement nodes that were strategically placed within a 1 km2 area, across different elevations, aspects, slopes, and canopy covers. Compared to existing operational sensor installations, the WSN reduces hydrologic uncertainty in at least three ways. First, redundant measurements improved estimation of lapse rates for air and dew-point temperature. Second, distributed measurements captured local variability and constrained uncertainty in air and dew-point temperature, snow accumulation, and derived hydrologic attributes important for modeling and prediction. Third, the distributed relative-humidity measurements offer a unique capability to monitor upper-basin patterns in dew-point temperature and characterize elevation gradient of water vapor-pressure deficit across steep, variable topography. Network statistics during the first year of operation demonstrated that the WSN was robust for cold, wet, and windy conditions in the basin. The electronic technology used in the WSN-reduced adverse effects, such as high current consumption, multipath signal fading, and clock drift, seen in previous remote WSNs.