Genomic alterations resulting in loss of control over the cell cycle is a fundamental hallmark of human malignancies. Whilst pan-cancer studies have broadly assessed tumour genomics and their impact on oncogenic pathways, analyses taking the baseline signalling levels in normal tissue into account are lacking. To this end, we aimed to reclassify the cell cycle activity of tumours in terms of their tissue of origin and determine if any common DNA mutations, chromosome arm-level changes or signalling pathways contribute to an increase in baseline corrected cell cycle activity. Combining normal tissue and pan-cancer data from over 13,000 samples we demonstrate that tumours of gynaecological origin show the highest levels of corrected cell cycle activity, partially owing to hormonal signalling and gene expression changes. We also show that normal and tumour tissues can be separated into groups (quadrants) of low/high cell cycle activity and propose the hypothesis of an upper limit on these activity levels in tumours.

The metastatic potential of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers is heterogeneous and distant recurrences occur months to decades after primary diagnosis. We have previously shown that patients with tumors classified as ultralow risk by the 70-gene signature have a minimal long-term risk of fatal breast cancer. Here, we evaluate the previously unexplored underlying clinical and molecular characteristics of ultralow risk tumors in 538 ER-positive patients from the Stockholm tamoxifen randomized trial (STO-3). Out of the 98 ultralow risk tumors, 89% were luminal A molecular subtype, whereas 26% of luminal A tumors were of ultralow risk. Compared to other ER-positive tumors, ultralow risk tumors were significantly (Fisher's test, P < .05) more likely to be of smaller tumor size, lower grade, progesterone receptor (PR)-positive, human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2)-negative and have low Ki-67 levels (proliferation-marker). Moreover, ultralow risk tumors showed significantly lower expression scores of multi-gene modules associated with the AKT/mTOR-pathway, proliferation (AURKA), HER2/ERBB2-signaling, IGF1-pathway, PTEN-loss and immune response (IMMUNE1 and IMMUNE2) and higher expression scores of the PIK3CA-mutation-associated module. Furthermore, 706 genes were significantly (FDR < 0.001) differentially expressed in ultralow risk tumors, including lower expression of genes involved in immune response, PI3K/Akt/mTOR-pathway, histones, cell cycle, DNA repair, apoptosis and higher expression of genes coding for epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition and homeobox proteins, among others. In conclusion, ultralow risk tumors, associated with minimal long-term risk of fatal disease, differ from other ER-positive tumors, including luminal A molecular subtype tumors. Identification of these characteristics is important to improve our prediction of nonfatal vs fatal breast cancer.

Background

Breast cancer patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease have a continuous long-term risk for fatal breast cancer, but the biological factors influencing this risk are unknown. We aimed to determine whether high intratumor heterogeneity of ER predicts an increased long-term risk (25 years) of fatal breast cancer.

Methods

The STO-3 trial enrolled 1780 postmenopausal lymph node-negative breast cancer patients randomly assigned to receive adjuvant tamoxifen vs not. The fraction of cancer cells for each ER intensity level was scored by breast cancer pathologists, and intratumor heterogeneity of ER was calculated using Rao's quadratic entropy and categorized into high and low heterogeneity using a predefined cutoff at the second tertile (67%). Long-term breast cancer-specific survival analyses by intra-tumor heterogeneity of ER were performed using Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox proportional hazard modeling adjusting for patient and tumor characteristics.

Results

A statistically significant difference in long-term survival by high vs low intratumor heterogeneity of ER was seen for all ER-positive patients (P < .001) and for patients with luminal A subtype tumors (P = .01). In multivariable analyses, patients with high intratumor heterogeneity of ER had a twofold increased long-term risk as compared with patients with low intratumor heterogeneity (ER-positive: hazard ratio [HR] = 1.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.31 to 3.00; luminal A subtype tumors: HR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.18 to 4.99).

Conclusions

Patients with high intratumor heterogeneity of ER had an increased long-term risk of fatal breast cancer. Interestingly, a similar long-term risk increase was seen in patients with luminal A subtype tumors. Our findings suggest that intratumor heterogeneity of ER is an independent long-term prognosticator with potential to change clinical management, especially for patients with luminal A tumors.

Resistance to endocrine therapy in estrogen receptor-positive (ER⁺) breast cancer is a major clinical problem with poorly understood mechanisms. There is an unmet need for prognostic and predictive biomarkers to allow appropriate therapeutic targeting. We evaluated the mechanism by which minichromosome maintenance protein 3 (MCM3) influences endocrine resistance and its predictive/prognostic potential in ER⁺ breast cancer. We discovered that ER⁺ breast cancer cells survive tamoxifen and letrozole treatments through upregulation of minichromosome maintenance proteins (MCMs), including MCM3, which are key molecules in the cell cycle and DNA replication. Lowering MCM3 expression in endocrine-resistant cells restored drug sensitivity and altered phosphorylation of cell cycle regulators, including p53(Ser^315,33), CHK1(Ser³¹⁷), and cdc25b(Ser³²³), suggesting that the interaction of MCM3 with cell cycle proteins is an important mechanism of overcoming replicative stress and anti-proliferative effects of endocrine treatments. Interestingly, the MCM3 levels did not affect the efficacy of growth inhibitory by CDK4/6 inhibitors. Evaluation of MCM3 levels in primary tumors from four independent cohorts of breast cancer patients receiving adjuvant tamoxifen mono-therapy or no adjuvant treatment, including the Stockholm tamoxifen (STO-3) trial, showed MCM3 to be an independent prognostic marker adding information beyond Ki67. In addition, MCM3 was shown to be a predictive marker of response to endocrine treatment. Our study reveals a coordinated signaling network centered around MCM3 that limits response to endocrine therapy in ER⁺ breast cancer and identifies MCM3 as a clinically useful prognostic and predictive biomarker that allows personalized treatment of ER⁺ breast cancer patients.