To investigate the incidence of first-ever stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) and associated risk factors in a cohort of persons living with HIV infection (PLWH).Observational cohort study METHODS:: We determined incidence rates of first-ever stroke/TIA in PLWH after ART initiation from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group ALLRT cohort and its parent trials. Poisson regression models evaluated baseline and time-varying covariates as risk factors for stroke/TIA.The incidence rate of stroke/TIA was 1.69 per 1000 person-years (PY). Incidence rates were highest in women (2.88 stroke/TIAs per 1000 PY compared with 1.40 per 1000 PY in men) and non-Hispanic Blacks (2.51 stroke/TIAs per 1000 PY compared with 0.77 per 1000 PY in Hispanic/other race/ethnicities and 1.56 per 1000 PY in Whites). In a multivariable model, we found a significant age-by-sex interaction (p = 0.01). The higher risk of stroke/TIA in women was more pronounced at younger ages, while older age conferred a greater increase in stroke/TIA risk in men than women. Other risk factors for stroke/TIA included hypertension, higher LDL, and HIV RNA >200 copies/mL. Overweight/obese BMI and higher CD4:CD8 ratio protected against stroke/TIA.Women and non-Hispanic Blacks living with HIV had the highest incidence rates of stroke/TIA. A concerted effort must be made to include PLWH from these at-risk groups in observational and interventional studies aimed at understanding stroke mechanisms and reducing stroke risk in HIV infection. Strategies to modify stroke risk in PLWH should employ a multi-pronged approach targeting vascular risk factors and engaging and retaining patients in HIV care.

Objective

To investigate the incidence of first-ever stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) and associated risk factors in a cohort of persons living with HIV infection (PLWH).

Design

Observational cohort study

Methods

We determined incidence rates of first-ever stroke/TIA in PLWH after ART initiation from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group ALLRT cohort and its parent trials. Poisson regression models evaluated baseline and time-varying covariates as risk factors for stroke/TIA.

Results

The incidence rate of stroke/TIA was 1.69 per 1000 person-years. Incidence rates were highest in women (2.88 stroke/TIAs per 1000 person-years compared with 1.40 per 1000 person-years in men) and non-Hispanic Blacks (2.51 stroke/TIAs per 1000 person-years compared with 0.77 per 1000 person-years in Hispanic/other race/ethnicities and 1.56 per 1000 person-years in whites). In a multivariable model, we found a significant age-by-sex interaction (P = 0.01). The higher risk of stroke/TIA in women was more pronounced at younger ages, whereas older age conferred a greater increase in stroke/TIA risk in men than women. Other risk factors for stroke/TIA included hypertension, higher LDL, and HIV RNA greater than 200 copies/ml. Overweight/obese BMI and higher CD4+:CD8+ ratio protected against stroke/TIA.

Conclusion

Women and non-Hispanic Blacks living with HIV had the highest incidence rates of stroke/TIA. A concerted effort must be made to include PLWH from these at-risk groups in observational and interventional studies aimed at understanding stroke mechanisms and reducing stroke risk in HIV infection. Strategies to modify stroke risk in PLWH should employ a multipronged approach targeting vascular risk factors and engaging and retaining patients in HIV care.

BACKGROUND:Isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) reduces mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV) and is recommended for those without active tuberculosis (TB) symptoms. Heavy alcohol use, however, is contraindicated for liver toxicity concerns. We evaluated the risks and benefits of IPT at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to ART alone for PLHIV who are heavy drinkers in 3 high TB-/HIV-burden countries. METHODS:We developed a Markov simulation model to compare ART alone to ART with either 6 or 36 months of IPT for heavy drinking PLHIV enrolling in care in Brazil, India, and Uganda. Outcomes included nonfatal toxicity, fatal toxicity, life expectancy, TB cases, and TB death. RESULTS:In this simulation, 6 months of IPT + ART (IPT6) extended life expectancy over both ART alone and 36 months of IPT + ART (IPT36) in India and Uganda, but ART alone dominated in Brazil in 51.5% of simulations. Toxicity occurred in 160/1000 persons on IPT6 and 415/1000 persons on IPT36, with fatal toxicity in 8/1000 on IPT6 and 21/1000 on IPT36. Sensitivity analyses favored IPT6 in India and Uganda with high toxicity thresholds. CONCLUSIONS:The benefits of IPT for heavy drinkers outweighed its risks in India and Uganda when given for a 6-month course. The toxicity/efficacy trade-off was less in Brazil where TB incidence is lower. IPT6 resulted in fatal toxicity in 8/1000 people, whereas even higher toxicities of IPT36 negated its benefits in all countries. Data to better characterize IPT toxicity among HIV-infected drinkers are needed to improve guidance.

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among people living with HIV (PLWH), and current evidence suggests that heavy alcohol users have an increased risk of developing TB disease compared to non-drinkers. Not known is whether the increased risk for TB disease among alcohol users may reflect higher rates of latent TB infection (LTBI) among this population. We assessed the latent TB infection prevalence based on tuberculin skin testing (TST) and examined association with current alcohol use among HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in south-western Uganda.

Methods

We included PLWH at the Mbarara Regional Hospital HIV clinic, who were either current alcohol consumers (prior 3 months) or past year abstainers (2:1 enrolment ratio). Participants were recruited for a study of isoniazid preventive therapy for LTBI. TST was performed using 5 tuberculin units of purified protein derivative. The primary outcome was a positive TST reading (≥5mm induration), reflecting LTBI. We used logistic regression analyses to assess the cross-sectional association between self-reported current alcohol use and a positive TST.

Results

Of the 295 of 312 (95%) who returned for TST reading, 63% were females and 63% were current alcohol drinkers. The TST positive prevalence was 27.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 22.6% - 32.9%). The odds of a positive TST for current alcohol users compared to abstainers was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.41, 1.41), controlling for gender, age, body mass index, history of smoking, and prior unhealthy alcohol use.

Conclusions

The prevalence of LTBI among PLWH on ART in south-western Uganda was moderate and LTBI poses a risk for future infectious TB. Although alcohol use is common, we did not detect an association between current drinking or prior unhealthy alcohol use and LTBI. Further studies to evaluate the association between LTBI and different levels of current drinking (heavy versus not) are needed.

Background

Isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) reduces tuberculosis reactivation and mortality among persons living with HIV (PLWH), yet hepatotoxicity concerns exclude "regular and heavy alcohol drinkers" from IPT. We aimed to determine the prevalence of elevated liver transaminases among PLWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART) who engage in alcohol use.

Setting

The Immune Suppression Syndrome Clinic of Mbarara, Uganda.

Methods

We defined elevated liver transaminases as ≥1.25 times (X) the upper limit of normal (ULN) for alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and/or aspartate aminotransferase (AST). We evaluated the associations of current alcohol use and other variables of interest (sex, body mass index, and ART regimen) with elevated transaminases at study screening, using multivariable logistic regression to obtain adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Among 1301 participants (53% female, median age 39 years, 67.4% current alcohol use), 18.8% (95% CI: 16.8-21.1) had elevated transaminases pre-IPT, with few (1.1%) severe (≥5X the ULN). The proportion with any elevation among those currently using alcohol and those abstaining was 22.3% and 11.6%, respectively (p<0.01). In multivariable analyses, those currently using alcohol had higher odds of elevated transaminases compared to those abstaining (aOR 1.65, 95% CI 1.15-2.37) as did males compared to females (aOR 2.68, 95% CI 1.90-3.78).

Conclusions

Pre-IPT elevated transaminases among PLWH receiving ART were common, similar to prior estimates, but severe elevations were rare. Current drinking and male sex were independently associated with elevated transaminases. Further research is needed to determine the implications of such transaminase elevations and alcohol use on providing IPT.

Achieving global elimination of hepatitis C virus requires a substantial scale-up of testing. Point-of-care HCV viral load assays are available as an alternative to laboratory-based assays to promote access in hard to reach or marginalized populations. The diagnostic performance and lower limit of detection are important attributes of these new assays for both diagnosis and test of cure. Therefore, our objective was to determine an acceptable LLoD for detectable HCV viraemia as a test for cure, 12 weeks post-treatment (SVR12). We assembled a global data set of patients with detectable viraemia at SVR12 from observational databases from 9 countries (Egypt, the United States, United Kingdom, Georgia, Ukraine, Myanmar, Cambodia, Pakistan, Mozambique) and two pharmaceutical-sponsored clinical trial registries. We examined the distribution of HCV viral load at SVR12 and presented the 90th, 95th, 97th and 99th percentiles. We used logistic regression to assess characteristics associated with low-level virological treatment failure (defined as <1000 IU/mL). There were 5973 cases of detectable viraemia at SVR12 from the combined data set. Median detectable HCV RNA at SVR12 was 287,986 IU/mL. The level of detection for the 95th percentile was 227 IU/mL (95% CI 170-276). Females and those with minimal fibrosis were more likely to experience low-level viraemia at SVR12 compared to men (adjusted odds ratio AOR = 1.60 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30-1.97 and those with cirrhosis (AOR = 1.49 95% CI 1.15-1.93). In conclusion, an assay with a level of detection of 1000 IU/mL or greater may miss a proportion of those with low-level treatment failure.

Recognizing the importance of timely guidance regarding the rapidly evolving field of hepatitis C management, the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) and the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) developed a web-based process for the expeditious formulation and dissemination of evidence-based recommendations. Launched in 2014, the hepatitis C virus (HCV) guidance website undergoes periodic updates as necessitated by availability of new therapeutic agents and/or research data. A major update was released electronically in September 2017, prompted primarily by approval of new direct-acting antiviral agents and expansion of the guidance's scope. This update summarizes the latest release of the HCV guidance and focuses on new or amended recommendations since the previous September 2015 print publication. The recommendations herein were developed by volunteer hepatology and infectious disease experts representing AASLD and IDSA and have been peer reviewed and approved by each society's governing board.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.