Background

Decisions to stop randomized trials are often based on traditional P value thresholds and are often unconvincing to clinicians. To familiarize clinical investigators with the application and advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods, we illustrate the steps of Bayesian interim analysis using a recent major trial that was stopped based on frequentist analysis of safety and futility.

Methods

We conducted Bayesian reanalysis of a factorial trial in newborn infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy that was designed to investigate whether outcomes would be improved by deeper (32 °C) or longer cooling (120 h), as compared with those achieved by standard whole body cooling (33.5 °C for 72 h). Using prior trial data, we developed neutral and enthusiastic prior probabilities for the effect on predischarge mortality, defined stopping guidelines for a clinically meaningful effect, and derived posterior probabilities for predischarge mortality.

Results

Bayesian relative risk estimates for predischarge mortality were closer to 1.0 than were frequentist estimates. Posterior probabilities suggested increased predischarge mortality (relative risk > 1.0) for the three intervention groups; two crossed the Bayesian futility threshold.

Conclusions

Bayesian analysis incorporating previous trial results and different pre-existing opinions can help interpret accruing data and facilitate informed stopping decisions that are likely to be meaningful and convincing to clinicians, meta-analysts, and guideline developers.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01192776 . Registered on 31 August 2010.

OBJECTIVE:To determine the characteristics of term infants with persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn (PPHN) associated with moderate or severe hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE). METHODS:We compared infants with and without PPHN enrolled in 2 randomized trials of therapeutic hypothermia: the induced hypothermia trial of cooling to 33.5°C for 72 hours vs normothermia, and the "usual-care" arm (33.5°C for 72 hours) of the optimizing cooling trial. RESULTS:Among 303 infants with HIE from these 2 studies, 67 (22%) had PPHN and 236 (78%) did not. We compared infants with PPHN with those without PPHN. The proportion of patients treated with therapeutic hypothermia was similar in PPHN and no-PPHN groups (66% vs 65%). Medication use during resuscitation (58% vs 44%), acidosis after birth (pH: 7.0 ± 0.2 vs 7.1 ± 0.2), severe HIE (43% vs 28%), meconium aspiration syndrome (39% vs 7%), pulmonary hemorrhage (12% vs 3%), culture-positive sepsis (12% vs 3%), systemic hypotension (65% vs 28%), inhaled nitric oxide therapy (64% vs 3%), and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (12% vs 0%) were more common in the PPHN group. Length of stay (26 ± 21 vs 16 ± 14 days) and mortality (27% vs 16%) were higher in the PPHN group. CONCLUSIONS:PPHN is common among infants with moderate/severe HIE and is associated with severe encephalopathy, lung disease, sepsis, systemic hypotension, and increased mortality. The prevalence of PPHN was not different between those infants receiving therapeutic hypothermia at 33.5°C in these 2 trials (44/197 = 22%) compared with infants receiving normothermia in the induced hypothermia trial (23/106 = 22%).

Objective

To determine the association of persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn (PPHN) with death or disability among infants with moderate or severe hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) treated with therapeutic hypothermia.

Methods

We compared infants with and without PPHN enrolled in the hypothermia arm from three randomized controlled trials (RCTs): Induced Hypothermia trial, "usual care" arm of Optimizing Cooling trial, and Late Hypothermia trial. Primary outcome was death or disability at 18-22 months adjusted for severity of HIE, center, and RCT.

Results

Among 280 infants, 67 (24%) were diagnosed with PPHN. Among infants with and without PPHN, death or disability was 47% vs. 29% (adjusted OR: 1.65, 0.86-3.14) and death was 26% vs. 12% (adjusted OR: 2.04, 0.92-4.53), respectively.

Conclusions

PPHN in infants with moderate or severe HIE was not associated with a statistically significant increase in primary outcome. These results should be interpreted with caution given the limited sample size.

OBJECTIVES:To describe the frequency and findings of cranial imaging in moderately preterm infants (born at 290/7-336/7 weeks of gestation) across centers, and to examine the association between abnormal imaging and clinical characteristics. STUDY DESIGN:We used data from the Neonatal Research Network Moderately Preterm Registry, including the most severe early (≤28 days) and late (>28 days) cranial imaging. Stepwise logistic regression and CART analysis were performed after adjustment for gestational age, antenatal steroid use, and center. RESULTS:Among 7021 infants, 4184 (60%) underwent cranial imaging. These infants had lower gestational ages and birth weights and higher rates of small for gestational age, outborn birth, cesarean delivery, neonatal resuscitation, and treatment with surfactant, compared with those without imaging (P < .0001). Imaging abnormalities noted in 15% of the infants included any intracranial hemorrhage (13.2%), grades 3-4 intracranial hemorrhage (1.7%), cystic periventricular leukomalacia (2.6%), and ventriculomegaly (6.6%). Histologic chorioamnionitis (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.19-1.83), gestational age (0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.97), antenatal steroids (OR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.41-0.74), and cesarean delivery (OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53-0.81) were associated with abnormal imaging. The center with the highest rate of cranial imaging, compared with the lowest, had a higher risk of abnormal imaging (OR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.10-3.92). On the classification and regression-tree model, cesarean delivery, center, antenatal steroids, and chorioamnionitis, in that order, predicted abnormal imaging. CONCLUSION:Among the 60% of moderately preterm infants with cranial imaging, 15% had intracranial hemorrhage, cystic periventricular leukomalacia or late ventriculomegaly. Further correlation of imaging and long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes in moderately preterm infants is needed.

Objectives

The objectives describe the frequency that inadequate oral feeding (IOF) is the reason why moderately preterm (MPT) infants remain hospitalized and its association with neonatal morbidities.

Study design

Prospective study using the NICHD Neonatal Research Network MPT Registry. Multivariable logistic regression was used to describe associations between IOF and continued hospitalization at 36 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA).

Result

A total of 6017 MPT infants from 18 centers were included. Three-thousand three-seventy-six (56%) remained hospitalized at 36 weeks PMA, of whom 1262 (37%) remained hospitalized due to IOF. IOF was associated with RDS (OR 2.02, 1.66-2.46), PDA (OR 1.86, 1.37-2.52), sepsis (OR 2.36, 95% 1.48-3.78), NEC (OR 16.14, 7.27-35.90), and BPD (OR 3.65, 2.56-5.21) compared to infants discharged and was associated with medical NEC (OR 2.06, 1.19-3.56) and BPD (OR 0.46, 0.34-0.61) compared to infants remaining hospitalized for an alternative reason.

Conclusion

IOF is the most common barrier to discharge in MPT infants, especially among those with neonatal morbidities.

The survival of preterm infants has steadily improved thanks to advances in perinatal and neonatal intensive clinical care. The focus is now on finding ways to improve morbidities, especially neurological outcomes. Although antenatal steroids and magnesium for preterm infants have become routine therapies, studies have mainly demonstrated short-term benefits for antenatal steroid therapy but limited evidence for impact on long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes. Further advances in neuroprotective and neurorestorative therapies, improved neuromonitoring modalities to optimize recruitment in trials, and improved biomarkers to assess the response to treatment are essential. Among the most promising agents, multipotential stem cells, immunomodulation, and anti-inflammatory therapies can improve neural outcomes in preclinical studies and are the subject of considerable ongoing research. In the meantime, bundles of care protecting and nurturing the brain in the neonatal intensive care unit and beyond should be widely implemented in an effort to limit injury and promote neuroplasticity. IMPACT: With improved survival of preterm infants due to improved antenatal and neonatal care, our focus must now be to improve long-term neurological and neurodevelopmental outcomes. This review details the multifactorial pathogenesis of preterm brain injury and neuroprotective strategies in use at present, including antenatal care, seizure management and non-pharmacological NICU care. We discuss treatment strategies that are being evaluated as potential interventions to improve the neurodevelopmental outcomes of infants born prematurely.

Objective

Antenatal magnesium (anteMg) is used for various obstetric indications including fetal neuroprotection. Infants exposed to anteMg may be at risk for respiratory depression and delivery room (DR) resuscitation. The study objective was to compare the risk of acute cardiorespiratory events among preterm infants who were and were not exposed to anteMg.

Study design

This was a retrospective analysis of prospective data collected in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network's Generic Database from April 1, 2011, through March 31, 2012. The primary outcome was DR intubation or respiratory support at birth or on day 1 of life. Secondary outcomes were invasive mechanical ventilation, hypotension treatment, neonatal morbidities, and mortality. Logistic regression analysis evaluated the risk of primary outcome after adjustment for covariates.

Results

We evaluated 1544 infants <29 weeks' gestational age (1091 in anteMg group and 453 in nonexposed group). Mothers in the anteMg group were more likely to have higher education, pregnancy-induced hypertension, and antenatal corticosteroids, while their infants were younger in gestation and weighed less (P < .05). The primary outcome (odds ratio [OR], 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88-1.65) was similar between groups. Hypotension treatment (OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.51-0.97) and invasive mechanical ventilation (OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.41-0.72) were significantly less in the anteMg group.

Conclusion

Among preterm infants age <29 weeks' gestation, anteMg exposure was not associated with an increase in cardiorespiratory events in the early newborn period. The safety of anteMg as measured by the need for DR intubation or respiratory support on day 1 of life was comparable between groups.

Background

Understanding the causes and timing of death in extremely premature infants may guide research efforts and inform the counseling of families.

Methods

We analyzed prospectively collected data on 6075 deaths among 22,248 live births, with gestational ages of 22 0/7 to 28 6/7 weeks, among infants born in study hospitals within the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. We compared overall and cause-specific in-hospital mortality across three periods from 2000 through 2011, with adjustment for baseline differences.

Results

The number of deaths per 1000 live births was 275 (95% confidence interval [CI], 264 to 285) from 2000 through 2003 and 285 (95% CI, 275 to 295) from 2004 through 2007; the number decreased to 258 (95% CI, 248 to 268) in the 2008-2011 period (P=0.003 for the comparison across three periods). There were fewer pulmonary-related deaths attributed to the respiratory distress syndrome and bronchopulmonary dysplasia in 2008-2011 than in 2000-2003 and 2004-2007 (68 [95% CI, 63 to 74] vs. 83 [95% CI, 77 to 90] and 84 [95% CI, 78 to 90] per 1000 live births, respectively; P=0.002). Similarly, in 2008-2011, as compared with 2000-2003, there were decreases in deaths attributed to immaturity (P=0.05) and deaths complicated by infection (P=0.04) or central nervous system injury (P<0.001); however, there were increases in deaths attributed to necrotizing enterocolitis (30 [95% CI, 27 to 34] vs. 23 [95% CI, 20 to 27], P=0.03). Overall, 40.4% of deaths occurred within 12 hours after birth, and 17.3% occurred after 28 days.

Conclusions

We found that from 2000 through 2011, overall mortality declined among extremely premature infants. Deaths related to pulmonary causes, immaturity, infection, and central nervous system injury decreased, while necrotizing enterocolitis-related deaths increased. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

Outcomes of neonatal encephalopathy (NE) have improved since the widespread implementation of therapeutic hypothermia (TH) in high-resource settings. While TH for NE in term and near-term infants has proven beneficial, 30-50% of infants with moderate-to-severe NE treated with TH still suffer death or significant impairments. There is therefore a critical need to find additional pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions that improve the outcomes for these children. There are many potential candidates; however, it is unclear whether these interventions have additional benefits when used with TH. Although primary and delayed (secondary) brain injury starting in the latent phase after HI are major contributors to neurodisability, the very late evolving effects of tertiary brain injury likely require different interventions targeting neurorestoration. Clinical trials of seizure management and neuroprotection bundles are needed, in addition to current trials combining erythropoietin, stem cells, and melatonin with TH. IMPACT: The widespread use of therapeutic hypothermia (TH) in the treatment of neonatal encephalopathy (NE) has reduced the associated morbidity and mortality. However, 30-50% of infants with moderate-to-severe NE treated with TH still suffer death or significant impairments. This review details the pathophysiology of NE along with the evidence for the use of TH and other beneficial neuroprotective strategies used in term infants. We also discuss treatment strategies undergoing evaluation at present as potential adjuvant treatments to TH in NE.

Importance

Hypothermia at 33.5°C for 72 hours for neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy reduces death or disability to 44% to 55%; longer cooling and deeper cooling are neuroprotective in animal models.

Objective

To determine if longer duration cooling (120 hours), deeper cooling (32.0°C), or both are superior to cooling at 33.5°C for 72 hours in neonates who are full-term with moderate or severe hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy.

Design, setting, and participants

A randomized, 2 × 2 factorial design clinical trial performed in 18 US centers in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Neonatal Research Network between October 2010 and November 2013.

Interventions

Neonates were assigned to 4 hypothermia groups; 33.5°C for 72 hours, 32.0°C for 72 hours, 33.5°C for 120 hours, and 32.0°C for 120 hours.

Main outcomes and measures

The primary outcome of death or disability at 18 to 22 months is ongoing. The independent data and safety monitoring committee paused the trial to evaluate safety (cardiac arrhythmia, persistent acidosis, major vessel thrombosis and bleeding, and death in the neonatal intensive care unit [NICU]) after the first 50 neonates were enrolled, then after every subsequent 25 neonates. The trial was closed for emerging safety profile and futility analysis after the eighth review with 364 neonates enrolled (of 726 planned). This report focuses on safety and NICU deaths by marginal comparisons of 72 hours' vs 120 hours' duration and 33.5°C depth vs 32.0°C depth (predefined secondary outcomes).

Results

The NICU death rates were 7 of 95 neonates (7%) for the 33.5°C for 72 hours group, 13 of 90 neonates (14%) for the 32.0°C for 72 hours group, 15 of 96 neonates (16%) for the 33.5°C for 120 hours group, and 14 of 83 neonates (17%) for the 32.0°C for 120 hours group. The adjusted risk ratio (RR) for NICU deaths for the 120 hours group vs 72 hours group was 1.37 (95% CI, 0.92-2.04) and for the 32.0°C group vs 33.5°C group was 1.24 (95% CI, 0.69-2.25). Safety outcomes were similar between the 120 hours group vs 72 hours group and the 32.0°C group vs 33.5°C group, except major bleeding occurred among 1% in the 120 hours group vs 3% in the 72 hours group (RR, 0.25 [95% CI, 0.07-0.91]). Futility analysis determined that the probability of detecting a statistically significant benefit for longer cooling, deeper cooling, or both for NICU death was less than 2%.

Conclusions and relevance

Among neonates who were full-term with moderate or severe hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, longer cooling, deeper cooling, or both compared with hypothermia at 33.5°C for 72 hours did not reduce NICU death. These results have implications for patient care and design of future trials.

Trial registration

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01192776.