Missed HIV medical visits predict poor clinical outcomes. We sought to identify patients at high risk of missing visits. We analyzed 2002-2014 data from six large US HIV clinics. At each visit, we predicted the likelihood of missing the next scheduled visit using demographic, clinical, and patient-reported psychosocial variables. Overall, 10,374 participants contributed 105,628 HIV visits. For 17% of visits, the next scheduled appointment was missed. The strongest predictor of a future missed visit was past-year missed visits. A model with only this predictor had area under the receiver operator curve = 0.65; defining "high risk" as those with any past-year missed visits had 73% sensitivity and 51% specificity in correctly identifying a future missed visit. Inclusion of other clinical and psychosocial predictors only slightly improved performance. Past visit attendance can identify those at increased risk for future missed visits, allowing for proactive allocation of resources to those at greatest risk.

OBJECTIVES: The relationship between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cardiovascular disease in people with HIV (PWH) is incompletely understood. We determined whether COPD is associated with risk of myocardial infarction (MI) among PWH, and if this differs for type 1 (T1MI) and type 2 (T2MI). DESIGN: We utilized data from five sites in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort, a multisite observational study. METHODS: Our primary outcome was an adjudicated MI, classified as T1MI or T2MI. We defined COPD based on a validated algorithm requiring COPD diagnosis codes and at least 90-day continuous supply of inhalers. We conducted time-to-event analyses to first MI and used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to measure associations between COPD and MI. RESULTS: Among 12 046 PWH, 945 had COPD. Overall, 309 PWH had an MI: 58% had T1MI ( N  = 178) and 42% T2MI ( N  = 131). In adjusted models, COPD was associated with a significantly increased risk of all MI [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.68 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.99-3.60)] even after including self-reported smoking [aHR 2.40 (95% CI 1.76-3.26)]. COPD was also associated with significantly increased risk of T1MI and T2MI individually, and with sepsis and non-sepsis causes of T2MI. Associations were generally minimally changed adjusting for substance use. CONCLUSION: COPD is associated with a substantially increased risk for MI, including both T1MI and T2MI, among PWH. Given the association with both T1MI and T2MI, diverse mechanistic pathways are involved. Future strategies to decrease risk of T1MI and T2MI in PWH who have COPD are needed.

Background

Retention in care (RIC) leads to reduced HIV transmission and mortality. Few studies have investigated clinic services and RIC among people living with HIV (PLWH) in the United States. We conducted a multisite retrospective cohort study to identify clinic services associated with RIC from 2010-2016 in the United States.

Methods

PLWH with ≥1 HIV primary care visit from 2010-2016 at 7 sites in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) were included. Clinic-level factors evaluated via site survey included patients per provider/trainee, navigation, RIC posters/brochures, laboratory test timing, flexible scheduling, appointment reminder methods, and stigma support services. RIC was defined as ≥2 encounters per year, ≥90 days apart, observed until death, administrative censoring (31 December 2016), or loss to follow-up (censoring at first 12-month interval without a visit with no future visits). Poisson regression with robust error variance, clustered by site adjusting for calendar year, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and HIV transmission risk factor, estimated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for RIC.

Results

Among 21 046 PLWH contributing 103 348 person-years, 67% of person-years were retained. Availability of text appointment reminders (RR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03-1.24) and stigma support services (RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04-1.19) were associated with better RIC. Disparities persisted for age, sex, and race.

Conclusions

Availability of text appointment reminders and stigma support services was associated with higher rates of RIC, indicating that these may be feasible and effective approaches for improving RIC.

Background

Identifying individuals at high risk of missing HIV care provider visits could support proactive intervention. Previous prediction models for missed visits have not incorporated data beyond the individual level.

Methods

We developed prediction models for missed visits among people with HIV (PWH) with ≥1 follow-up visit in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems from 2010 to 2016. Individual-level (medical record data and patient-reported outcomes), community-level (American Community Survey), HIV care site-level (standardized clinic leadership survey), and structural-level (HIV criminalization laws, Medicaid expansion, and state AIDS Drug Assistance Program budget) predictors were included. Models were developed using random forests with 10-fold cross-validation; candidate models with the highest area under the curve (AUC) were identified.

Results

Data from 382 432 visits among 20 807 PWH followed for a median of 3.8 years were included; the median age was 44 years, 81% were male, 37% were Black, 15% reported injection drug use, and 57% reported male-to-male sexual contact. The highest AUC was 0.76, and the strongest predictors were at the individual level (prior visit adherence, age, CD4+ count) and community level (proportion living in poverty, unemployed, and of Black race). A simplified model, including readily accessible variables available in a web-based calculator, had a slightly lower AUC of .700.

Conclusions

Prediction models validated using multilevel data had a similar AUC to previous models developed using only individual-level data. The strongest predictors were individual-level variables, particularly prior visit adherence, though community-level variables were also predictive. Absent additional data, PWH with previous missed visits should be prioritized by interventions to improve visit adherence.

OBJECTIVES: People with HIV have a higher risk of myocardial infarction (MI) than the general population, with a greater proportion of type 2 MI (T2MI) due to oxygen demand-supply mismatch compared with type 1 (T1MI) resulting from atherothrombotic plaque disruption. People living with HIV report a greater prevalence of cigarette and alcohol use than do the general population. Alcohol use and smoking as risk factors for MI by type are not well studied among people living with HIV. We examined longitudinal associations between smoking and alcohol use patterns and MI by type among people living with HIV. DESIGN AND METHODS: Using longitudinal data from the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort, we conducted time-updated Cox proportional hazards models to determine the impact of smoking and alcohol consumption on adjudicated T1MI and T2MI. RESULTS: Among 13 506 people living with HIV, with a median 4 years of follow-up, we observed 177 T1MI and 141 T2MI. Current smoking was associated with a 60% increase in risk of both T1MI and T2MI. In addition, every cigarette smoked per day was associated with a 4% increase in risk of T1MI, with a suggestive, but not significant, 2% increase for T2MI. Cigarette use had a greater impact on T1MI for men than for women and on T2MI for women than for men. Increasing alcohol use was associated with a lower risk of T1MI but not T2MI. Frequency of heavy episodic alcohol use was not associated with MI. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reinforce the prioritization of smoking reduction, even without cessation, and cessation among people living with HIV for MI prevention and highlight the different impacts on MI type by gender.

To assess atrial fibrillation risk factors in people with HIV, we identified incident atrial fibrillation in a large clinical cohort of people receiving care. Compared with 970 controls without atrial fibrillation, the 97 with adjudicated incident atrial fibrillation were older, less likely Hispanic, and had more coronary disease, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In multivariable analysis, nonuse of antiretroviral therapy and prescription of antiretroviral regimens with multiple core agents were associated with increased atrial fibrillation risk.

Abstract: Background: Little is known about how race and ethnicity, imperfect (albeit accessible) proxies for structural racism, impact COVID-19 incidence among people with HIV (PWH). We report the cumulative incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRR) for COVID-19 in a long-term multi-site cohort of PWH across the US Figure 1. Cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the CNICS cohort Methods: We examined COVID-19 cumulative incidence and IRR among PWH in care between 3/1/2020 and 12/31/2020 at seven sites in the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort. We define COVID-19 incident case as having a laboratory-confirmed (RT-PCR/Ag) SARS-CoV-2 positive result or diagnosis verified by chart review. Reinfections were excluded. Results are presented as monthly and quarterly cumulative incidence and IRR with 95% CI stratified by CD4 count, self-reported race/ethnicity, and site. Follow-up was censored on the earliest of diagnosis of COVID-19 disease, loss to follow up, or 12/31/2020 Results: Among 15,780 PWH in care in the CNICS cohort during the study period, 62% were non-white, with a median (IQR) age of 52 (IQR 40-59), 95% were on antiretroviral therapy, 17% had a CD4 count less than 350, and 6% less than 200. Overall, 651 PWH tested positive for COVID-19 for a cumulative incidence of 4.13%. COVID-19 cumulative incidence increased from 0.77% at the end of the first quarter to 4.12% by the end of December 2020. At the peak of the pandemic in December 2020, the cumulative incidence in Black PWH was 1.68 fold higher than in white PWH (p=.033) and 2.35 fold higher in Hispanics than in whites (P< .0001), figure 1. Similarly, the IRR for COVID-19 was 1.71 (95% CI 1.42-2.07) for Black and 2.40 (95% CI 1.91-3.01) for Hispanic PWH relative to white. Although there was variation across sites, reflecting geographic differences in pandemic waves and access to COVID-19 testing, overall individual trends remained the same. COVID-19 cumulative incidence was similar across CD4 cell count strata Conclusion: Our results suggest effects of structural racial disparities on COVID-19 incidence in this diverse population of PWH across the US, with higher and disproportionate rates of COVID-19 in Black and Hispanic PWH. Incidence estimates are conservative because testing was not uniform, and no systematic testing was conducted Disclosures: Edward R. Cachay, MD, MAS, Gilead Science (Grant/Research Support, Advisor or Review Panel member)Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp (Grant/Research Support) Adrienne Shapiro, MD, PhD, Vir Biotechnology (Scientific Research Study Investigator) Darcy Wooten, MD, MS, Nothing to disclose Rachel A. Bender Ignacio, MD MPH, Abbvie (Individual(s) Involved: Self): Consultant; SeaGen (Individual(s) Involved: Self): Consultant Greer A. Burkholder, MD, MSPH, Eli Lilly (Grant/Research Support) Heidi Crane, MD, MPH, ViiV (Grant/Research Support)

Among 14 049 people with human immunodeficiency virus in care in 2019-2020, 96% were treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART). Current antiretroviral treatment patterns highlight high uptake of guideline-recommended ART regimens including second-generation integrase strand transfer inhibitors (dolutegravir and bictegravir) and tenofovir alafenamide, especially in antiretroviral-naive individuals initiating ART.

BACKGROUND: People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (PWH) are at higher risk of myocardial infarction (MI) than those without HIV. About half of MIs in PWH are type 2 (T2MI), resulting from mismatch between myocardial oxygen supply and demand, in contrast to type 1 MI (T1MI), which is due to primary plaque rupture or coronary thrombosis. Despite worse survival and rising incidence in the general population, evidence-based treatment recommendations for T2MI are lacking. We used polygenic risk scores (PRS) to explore genetic mechanisms of T2MI compared to T1MI in PWH. METHODS: We derived 115 PRS for MI-related traits in 9541 PWH enrolled in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort with adjudicated T1MI and T2MI. We applied multivariate logistic regression analyses to determine the association with T1MI and T2MI. Based on initial findings, we performed gene set enrichment analysis of the top variants composing PRS associated with T2MI. RESULTS: We found that T1MI was strongly associated with PRS for cardiovascular disease, lipid profiles, and metabolic traits. In contrast, PRS for alcohol dependence and cholecystitis, significantly enriched in energy metabolism pathways, were predictive of T2MI risk. The association remained after the adjustment for actual alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate distinct genetic traits associated with T1MI and T2MI among PWH further highlighting their etiological differences and supporting the role of energy regulation in T2MI pathogenesis.

Proliferation of CD4+ T cells harboring HIV-1 proviruses is a major contributor to viral persistence in people on antiretroviral therapy (ART). To determine whether differential rates of clonal proliferation or HIV-1-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) pressure shape the provirus landscape, we performed an intact proviral DNA assay (IPDA) and obtained 661 near-full-length provirus sequences from 8 individuals with suppressed viral loads on ART at time points 7 years apart. We observed slow decay of intact proviruses but no changes in the proportions of various types of defective proviruses. The proportion of intact proviruses in expanded clones was similar to that of defective proviruses in clones. Intact proviruses observed in clones did not have more escaped CTL epitopes than intact proviruses observed as singlets. Concordantly, total proviruses at later time points or observed in clones were not enriched in escaped or unrecognized epitopes. Three individuals with natural control of HIV-1 infection (controllers) on ART, included because controllers have strong HIV-1-specific CTL responses, had a smaller proportion of intact proviruses but a distribution of defective provirus types and escaped or unrecognized epitopes similar to that of the other individuals. This work suggests that CTL selection does not significantly check clonal proliferation of infected cells or greatly alter the provirus landscape in people on ART.