Efforts to reduce the viral load of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) during long-term treatment are challenged by the evolution of anti-viral resistance mutants. Recent studies have shown that gene therapy approaches based on conditionally replicating vectors (CRVs) could have many advantages over anti-viral drugs and other approaches to therapy, potentially including the ability to circumvent the problem of evolved resistance. However, research to date has not explored the evolutionary consequences of long-term treatment of HIV-1 infections with conditionally replicating vectors. In this study, we analyze a computational model of the within-host co-evolutionary dynamics of HIV-1 and conditionally replicating vectors, using the recently proposed 'therapeutic interfering particle' as an example. The model keeps track of the stochastic process of viral mutation, and the deterministic population dynamics of T cells as well as different strains of CRV and HIV-1 particles. We show that early in the co-infection, mutant HIV-1 genotypes that escape suppression by CRV therapy appear; this is similar to the dynamics observed in drug treatments and other gene therapies. In contrast to other treatments, however, the CRV population is able to evolve and catch up with the dominant HIV-1 escape mutant and persist long-term in most cases. On evolutionary grounds, gene therapies based on CRVs appear to be a promising tool for long-term treatment of HIV-1. Our model allows us to propose design principles to optimize the efficacy of this class of gene therapies. In addition, because of the analogy between CRVs and naturally-occurring defective interfering particles, our results also shed light on the co-evolutionary dynamics of wild-type viruses and their defective interfering particles during natural infections.

Recent discoveries of direct acting antivirals against Hepatitis C virus (HCV) have raised hopes of effective treatment via combination therapies. Yet rapid evolution and high diversity of HCV populations, combined with the reality of suboptimal treatment adherence, make drug resistance a clinical and public health concern. We develop a general model incorporating viral dynamics and pharmacokinetics/ pharmacodynamics to assess how suboptimal adherence affects resistance development and clinical outcomes. We derive design principles and adaptive treatment strategies, identifying a high-risk period when missing doses is particularly risky for de novo resistance, and quantifying the number of additional doses needed to compensate when doses are missed. Using data from large-scale resistance assays, we demonstrate that the risk of resistance can be reduced substantially by applying these principles to a combination therapy of daclatasvir and asunaprevir. By providing a mechanistic framework to link patient characteristics to the risk of resistance, these findings show the potential of rational treatment design.

Intra-host sequence data from RNA viruses have revealed the ubiquity of defective viruses in natural viral populations, sometimes at surprisingly high frequency. Although defective viruses have long been known to laboratory virologists, their relevance in clinical and epidemiological settings has not been established. The discovery of long-term transmission of a defective lineage of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) in Myanmar, first seen in 2001, raised important questions about the emergence of transmissible defective viruses and their role in viral epidemiology. By combining phylogenetic analyses and dynamical modeling, we investigate how evolutionary and ecological processes at the intra-host and inter-host scales shaped the emergence and spread of the defective DENV-1 lineage. We show that this lineage of defective viruses emerged between June 1998 and February 2001, and that the defective virus was transmitted primarily through co-transmission with the functional virus to uninfected individuals. We provide evidence that, surprisingly, this co-transmission route has a higher transmission potential than transmission of functional dengue viruses alone. Consequently, we predict that the defective lineage should increase overall incidence of dengue infection, which could account for the historically high dengue incidence reported in Myanmar in 2001-2002. Our results show the unappreciated potential for defective viruses to impact the epidemiology of human pathogens, possibly by modifying the virulence-transmissibility trade-off, or to emerge as circulating infections in their own right. They also demonstrate that interactions between viral variants, such as complementation, can open new pathways to viral emergence.

When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutionary emergence, and whether evolution occurs swiftly or gradually within chains of transmission. We find that wider transmission bottlenecks facilitate emergence of pathogens with short-term infections, but hinder emergence of pathogens exhibiting cross-scale selective conflict and long-term infections. Our results provide a framework to advance the integration of laboratory, clinical, and field data in the context of evolutionary theory, laying the foundation for a new generation of evidence-based risk assessment of emergence threats.

Objectives

Daclatasvir is a highly potent inhibitor of hepatitis C virus. We estimated the active tissue concentration of daclatasvir in vivo.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model incorporating pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic and viral dynamics. By fitting the model to clinical data reported previously, we estimated the ratio between plasma drug concentration and active tissue concentration in vivo.

Results

The modelling results show that the active tissue concentration of daclatasvir is ∼9% of the concentration measured in plasma (95% CI 1%-29%).

Conclusions

Using plasma concentrations as surrogates for clinical recommendations may lead to substantial underestimation of the risk of resistance.

Across biological scales, gene-regulatory networks employ autorepression (negative feedback) to maintain homeostasis and minimize failure from aberrant expression. Here, we present a proof of concept that disrupting transcriptional negative feedback dysregulates viral gene expression to therapeutically inhibit replication and confers a high evolutionary barrier to resistance. We find that nucleic-acid decoys mimicking cis-regulatory sites act as "feedback disruptors," break homeostasis, and increase viral transcription factors to cytotoxic levels (termed "open-loop lethality"). Feedback disruptors against herpesviruses reduced viral replication >2-logs without activating innate immunity, showed sub-nM IC₅₀, synergized with standard-of-care antivirals, and inhibited virus replication in mice. In contrast to approved antivirals where resistance rapidly emerged, no feedback-disruptor escape mutants evolved in long-term cultures. For SARS-CoV-2, disruption of a putative feedback circuit also generated open-loop lethality, reducing viral titers by >1-log. These results demonstrate that generating open-loop lethality, via negative-feedback disruption, may yield a class of antimicrobials with a high genetic barrier to resistance.

Widely used chemical genetic screens have greatly facilitated the identification of many antiviral agents. However, the regions of interaction and inhibitory mechanisms of many therapeutic candidates have yet to be elucidated. Previous chemical screens identified Daclatasvir (BMS-790052) as a potent nonstructural protein 5A (NS5A) inhibitor for Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with an unclear inhibitory mechanism. Here we have developed a quantitative high-resolution genetic (qHRG) approach to systematically map the drug-protein interactions between Daclatasvir and NS5A and profile genetic barriers to Daclatasvir resistance. We implemented saturation mutagenesis in combination with next-generation sequencing technology to systematically quantify the effect of every possible amino acid substitution in the drug-targeted region (domain IA of NS5A) on replication fitness and sensitivity to Daclatasvir. This enabled determination of the residues governing drug-protein interactions. The relative fitness and drug sensitivity profiles also provide a comprehensive reference of the genetic barriers for all possible single amino acid changes during viral evolution, which we utilized to predict clinical outcomes using mathematical models. We envision that this high-resolution profiling methodology will be useful for next-generation drug development to select drugs with higher fitness costs to resistance, and also for informing the rational use of drugs based on viral variant spectra from patients.

Objective(s)

To determine whether variation in cell-associated unspliced (CA-US) HIV RNA in HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has a circadian basis.

Methods

Prospective observational study of HIV-infected individuals on ART. Blood was collected on three occasions and CA-US HIV RNA and mRNA of the circadian-locomotor-output-cycles-kaput (CLOCK)-associated genes quantified by real time PCR. CLOCK-associated proteins were over-expressed in a cell line stably transfected with an HIV long-terminal repeat (LTR) luciferase reporter.

Results

Using a mixed effects model, there was a significant increase in log-CA-US RNA at the third visit compared with the first visit (effect size of 0.619 with standard error (SE) of 0.098, P < 0.001) and an independent effect of time of blood draw (effect size 0.051 (SE 0.025), P = 0.040). The CLOCK-associated gene, brain-and-muscle-ARNT-like-1 (BMAL-1) had a significant relationship with log CA-US HIV RNA (effect size 8.508 (SE 3.777), P = 0.028) and also with time (P = 0.045). Over expression of BMAL-1 and CLOCK in a cell line stably transfected with an HIV-LTR luciferase reporter resulted in an increase in luciferase expression and this was reduced following mutation of the second E-box in the HIV-LTR.

Conclusion

The basal level of HIV transcription on ART can vary significantly and is modulated by the circadian regulator BMAL-1, amongst other factors.

Widely used chemical genetic screens have greatly facilitated the identification of many antiviral agents. However, the regions of interaction and inhibitory mechanisms of many therapeutic candidates have yet to be elucidated. Previous chemical screens identified Daclatasvir (BMS-790052) as a potent nonstructural protein 5A (NS5A) inhibitor for Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with an unclear inhibitory mechanism. Here we have developed a quantitative high-resolution genetic (qHRG) approach to systematically map the drug-protein interactions between Daclatasvir and NS5A and profile genetic barriers to Daclatasvir resistance. We implemented saturation mutagenesis in combination with next-generation sequencing technology to systematically quantify the effect of every possible amino acid substitution in the drug-targeted region (domain IA of NS5A) on replication fitness and sensitivity to Daclatasvir. This enabled determination of the residues governing drug-protein interactions. The relative fitness and drug sensitivity profiles also provide a comprehensive reference of the genetic barriers for all possible single amino acid changes during viral evolution, which we utilized to predict clinical outcomes using mathematical models. We envision that this high-resolution profiling methodology will be useful for next-generation drug development to select drugs with higher fitness costs to resistance, and also for informing the rational use of drugs based on viral variant spectra from patients.

To mitigate the loss of lives during the COVID-19 pandemic, emergency use authorization was given to several anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in patients with a high risk of progressing to severe disease. Monoclonal antibodies used to treat SARS-CoV-2 target the spike protein of the virus and block its ability to enter and infect target cells. Monoclonal antibody therapy can thus accelerate the decline in viral load and lower hospitalization rates among high-risk patients with variants susceptible to mAb therapy. However, viral resistance has been observed, in some cases leading to a transient viral rebound that can be as large as 3-4 orders of magnitude. As mAbs represent a proven treatment choice for SARS-CoV-2 and other viral infections, evaluation of treatment-emergent mAb resistance can help uncover underlying pathobiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection and may also help in the development of the next generation of mAb therapies. Although resistance can be expected, the large rebounds observed are much more difficult to explain. We hypothesize replenishment of target cells is necessary to generate the high transient viral rebound. Thus, we formulated two models with different mechanisms for target cell replenishment (homeostatic proliferation and return from an innate immune response antiviral state) and fit them to data from persons with SARS-CoV-2 treated with a mAb. We showed that both models can explain the emergence of resistant virus associated with high transient viral rebounds. We found that variations in the target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters have a strong impact on the magnitude or observability of the viral rebound associated with the emergence of resistant virus. Both variations in target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters may explain why only some individuals develop observable transient resistant viral rebound. Our study highlights the conditions that can lead to resistance and subsequent viral rebound in mAb treatments during acute infection.