Cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) is the most common reproductive manipulation produced by Wolbachia, obligately intracellular alphaproteobacteria that infect approximately half of all insect species. Once infection frequencies within host populations approach 10%, intense CI can drive Wolbachia to near fixation within 10 generations. However, natural selection among Wolbachia variants within individual host populations does not favor enhanced CI. Indeed, variants that do not cause CI but increase host fitness or are more reliably maternally transmitted are expected to spread if infected females remain protected from CI. Nevertheless, approximately half of analyzed Wolbachia infections cause detectable CI. Why? The frequency and persistence of CI are more plausibly explained by preferential spread to new host species (clade selection) rather than by natural selection among variants within host populations. CI-causing Wolbachia lineages preferentially spread into new host species because 1) CI increases equilibrium Wolbachia frequencies within host populations, and 2) CI-causing variants can remain at high frequencies within populations even when conditions change so that initially beneficial Wolbachia infections become harmful. An epidemiological model describing Wolbachia acquisition and loss by host species and the loss of CI-induction within Wolbachia lineages yields simple expressions for the incidence of Wolbachia infections and the fraction of those infections causing CI. Supporting a determinative role for differential interspecific spread in maintaining CI, many Wolbachia infections were recently acquired by their host species, many show evidence for contemporary spatial spread or retreat, and rapid evolution of CI-inducing loci, especially degradation, is common.

Seasonal windows of opportunity are intervals within a year that provide improved prospects for growth, survival, or reproduction. However, few studies have sufficient temporal resolution to examine how multiple factors combine to constrain the seasonal timing and extent of developmental opportunities. Here, we document seasonal changes in milkweed (Asclepias fascicularis)-monarch (Danaus plexippus) interactions with high resolution throughout the last three breeding seasons prior to a precipitous single-year decline in the western monarch population. Our results show early- and late-season windows of opportunity for monarch recruitment that were constrained by different combinations of factors. Early-season windows of opportunity were characterized by high egg densities and low survival on a select subset of host plants, consistent with the hypothesis that early-spring migrant female monarchs select earlier-emerging plants to balance a seasonal trade-off between increasing host plant quantity and decreasing host plant quality. Late-season windows of opportunity were coincident with the initiation of host plant senescence, and caterpillar success was negatively correlated with heatwave exposure, consistent with the hypothesis that late-season windows were constrained by plant defense traits and thermal stress. Throughout this study, climatic and microclimatic variations played a foundational role in the timing and success of monarch developmental windows by affecting bottom-up, top-down, and abiotic limitations. More exposed microclimates were associated with higher developmental success during cooler conditions, and more shaded microclimates were associated with higher developmental success during warmer conditions, suggesting that habitat heterogeneity could buffer the effects of climatic variation. Together, these findings show an important dimension of seasonal change in milkweed-monarch interactions and illustrate how different biotic and abiotic factors can limit the developmental success of monarchs across the breeding season. These results also suggest the potential for seasonal sequences of favorable or unfavorable conditions across the breeding range to strongly affect monarch population dynamics.