Background

Risk prediction models that incorporate biomarkers and clinicopathologic variables may be used to improve decision making after radical prostatectomy (RP). We compared two previously validated post-RP classifiers-the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical (CAPRA-S) and the Decipher genomic classifier (GC)-to predict prostate cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in a contemporary cohort of RP patients.

Objective

To evaluate the combined prognostic ability of CAPRA-S and GC to predict CSM.

Design, setting, and participants

A cohort of 1010 patients at high risk of recurrence after RP were treated at the Mayo Clinic between 2000 and 2006. High risk was defined by any of the following: preoperative prostate-specific antigen >20 ng/ml, pathologic Gleason score ≥8, or stage pT3b. A case-cohort random sample identified 225 patients (with cases defined as patients who experienced CSM), among whom CAPRA-S and GC could be determined for 185 patients.

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

The scores were evaluated individually and in combination using concordance index (c-index), decision curve analysis, reclassification, cumulative incidence, and Cox regression for the prediction of CSM.

Results and limitations

Among 185 men, 28 experienced CSM. The c-indices for CAPRA-S and GC were 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-0.84) and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.68-0.87), respectively. GC showed higher net benefit on decision curve analysis, but a score combining CAPRA-S and GC did not improve the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve after optimism-adjusted bootstrapping. In 82 patients stratified to high risk based on CAPRA-S score ≥6, GC scores were likewise high risk for 33 patients, among whom 17 had CSM events. GC reclassified the remaining 49 men as low to intermediate risk; among these men, three CSM events were observed. In multivariable analysis, GC and CAPRA-S as continuous variables were independently prognostic of CSM, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.81 (p<0.001 per 0.1-unit change in score) and 1.36 (p=0.01 per 1-unit change in score). When categorized into risk groups, the multivariable HR for high CAPRA-S scores (≥6) was 2.36 (p=0.04) and was 11.26 (p<0.001) for high GC scores (≥0.6). For patients with both high GC and high CAPRA-S scores, the cumulative incidence of CSM was 45% at 10 yr. The study is limited by its retrospective design.

Conclusions

Both GC and CAPRA-S were significant independent predictors of CSM. GC was shown to reclassify many men stratified to high risk based on CAPRA-S ≥6 alone. Patients with both high GC and high CAPRA-S risk scores were at markedly elevated post-RP risk for lethal prostate cancer. If validated prospectively, these findings suggest that integration of a genomic-clinical classifier may enable better identification of those post-RP patients who should be considered for more aggressive secondary therapies and clinical trials.

Patient summary

The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical (CAPRA-S) and the Decipher genomic classifier (GC) were significant independent predictors of prostate cancer-specific mortality. These findings suggest that integration of a genomic-clinical classifier may enable better identification of those post-radical prostatectomy patients who should be considered for more aggressive secondary therapies and clinical trials.

A single early prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level has been correlated with a higher likelihood of prostate cancer diagnosis and death in younger men. PSA testing in older men has been considered of limited utility. We evaluated prostate cancer death in relation to age and PSA level immediately prior to prostate cancer diagnosis. Using the Veterans Affairs database, we identified 230,081 men aged 50-89 years diagnosed with prostate cancer and at least one prior PSA test between 1999 and 2009. Prostate cancer-specific death over time was calculated for patients stratified by age group (e.g., 50-59 years, through 80-89 years) and PSA range at diagnosis (10 ranges) using Kaplan-Meier methods. Risk of 10-year prostate cancer mortality across age and PSA was compared using log-rank tests with a Bonferroni adjustment for multiple testing. 10.5% of men diagnosed with prostate cancer died of cancer during the 10-year study period (mean follow-up = 3.7 years). Higher PSA values prior to diagnosis predict a higher risk of death in all age groups (p < 0.0001). Within the same PSA range, older age groups are at increased risk for death from prostate cancer (p < 0.0001). For PSA of 7-10 ng/mL, cancer-specific death, 10 years after diagnosis, increased from 7% for age 50-59 years to 51% for age 80-89 years. Men older than 70 years are more likely to die of prostate cancer at any PSA level than younger men, suggesting prostate cancer remains a significant problem among older men (even those aged 80+) and deserves additional study.

Context

Disease-specific registries that enroll a considerable number of patients play a major role in prostate cancer (PCa) research.

Objective

To evaluate available registries, describe their strengths and limitations, and discuss the potential future role of PCa registries in outcomes research.

Evidence acquisition

We performed a literature review of the Medline, Embase, and Web of Science databases. The search strategy included the terms prostate cancer, outcomes, statistical approaches, population-based cohorts, registries of outcomes, and epidemiological studies, alone or in combination. We limited our search to studies published between January 2005 and January 2015.

Evidence synthesis

Several population-based and prospective disease-specific registries are currently available for prostate cancer. Studies performed using these data sources provide important information on incidence and mortality, disease characteristics at presentation, risk factors, trends in utilization of health care services, disparities in access to treatment, quality of care, long-term oncologic and health-related quality of life outcomes, and costs associated with management of the disease. Although data from these registries have some limitations, statistical methods are available that can address certain biases and increase the internal and external validity of such analyses. In the future, improvements in data quality, collection of tissue samples, and the availability of data feedback to health care providers will increase the relevance of studies built on population-based and disease-specific registries.

Conclusions

The strengths and limitations of PCa registries should be carefully considered when planning studies using these databases. Although randomized controlled trials still provide the highest level of evidence, large registries play an important and growing role in advancing PCa research and care.

Patient summary

Several population-based and prospective disease-specific registries for prostate cancer are currently available. Analyses of data from these registries yield information that is clinically relevant for the management of patients with prostate cancer.

Background

Risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) is highly variable for men with adverse pathologic features at radical prostatectomy (RP); a majority will die of other causes. Accurately stratifying PCSM risk can improve therapy decisions.

Objective

Validate the 22 gene Decipher genomic classifier (GC) to predict PCSM in men with adverse pathologic features after RP.

Design, setting, and participants

Men with adverse pathologic features: pT3, pN1, positive margins, or Gleason score >7 who underwent RP in 1987-2010 at Johns Hopkins, Cleveland Clinic, Mayo Clinic, and Durham Veteran's Affairs Hospital. We also analyzed subgroups at high risk (prostate-specific antigen >20 ng/ml, RP Gleason score 8-10, or stage >pT3b), or very high risk of PCSM (biochemical recurrence in<2 yr [BCR2], or men who developed metastasis after RP [MET]).

Outcome measurements and statistical analysis

Logistic regression evaluated the association of GC with PCSM within 10 yr of RP (PCSM10), adjusted for the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment Postsurgical Score (CAPRA-S). GC performance was evaluated with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curves.

Results and limitations

Five hundred and sixty-one men (112 with PCSM10), median follow-up 13.0 yr (patients without PCSM10). For high GC score (> 0.6) versus low-intermediate (≤ 0.6), the odds ratio for PCSM10 adjusted for CAPRA-S was 3.91 (95% confidence interval: 2.43-6.29), with AUC=0.77, an increase of 0.04 compared with CAPRA-S. Subgroup odds ratios were 3.96, 3.06, and 1.95 for high risk, BCR2, or MET, respectively (all p<0.05), with AUCs 0.64-0.72. GC stratified cumulative PCSM10 incidence from 2.8% to 30%. Combined use of case-control and cohort data is a potential limitation.

Conclusions

In a large cohort with the longest follow-up to date, Decipher GC demonstrated clinically important prediction of PCSM at 10 yr, independent of CAPRA-S, in men with adverse pathologic features, BCR2, or MET after RP.

Patient summary

Decipher genomic classifier may improve treatment decision-making for men with adverse or high risk pathology after radical prostatectomy.

Prostate cancer is a biologically heterogeneous disease with variable molecular alterations underlying cancer initiation and progression. Despite recent advances in understanding prostate cancer heterogeneity, better methods for classification of prostate cancer are still needed to improve prognostic accuracy and therapeutic outcomes. In this study, we computationally assembled a large virtual cohort (n = 1,321) of human prostate cancer transcriptome profiles from 38 distinct cohorts and, using pathway activation signatures of known relevance to prostate cancer, developed a novel classification system consisting of three distinct subtypes (named PCS1-3). We validated this subtyping scheme in 10 independent patient cohorts and 19 laboratory models of prostate cancer, including cell lines and genetically engineered mouse models. Analysis of subtype-specific gene expression patterns in independent datasets derived from luminal and basal cell models provides evidence that PCS1 and PCS2 tumors reflect luminal subtypes, while PCS3 represents a basal subtype. We show that PCS1 tumors progress more rapidly to metastatic disease in comparison with PCS2 or PCS3, including PSC1 tumors of low Gleason grade. To apply this finding clinically, we developed a 37-gene panel that accurately assigns individual tumors to one of the three PCS subtypes. This panel was also applied to circulating tumor cells (CTC) and provided evidence that PCS1 CTCs may reflect enzalutamide resistance. In summary, PCS subtyping may improve accuracy in predicting the likelihood of clinical progression and permit treatment stratification at early and late disease stages. Cancer Res; 76(17); 4948-58. ©2016 AACR.

Background

Improved clinical predictors for disease progression are needed for localised prostate cancer, since only a subset of patients develop recurrent or refractory disease after first-line treatment. Therefore, we undertook an unbiased analysis to identify RNA biomarkers associated with metastatic progression after prostatectomy.

Methods

Prostate cancer samples from patients treated with radical prostatectomy at three academic institutions were analysed for gene expression by a high-density Affymetrix GeneChip platform, encompassing more than 1 million genomic loci. In a discovery cohort, all protein-coding genes and known long non-coding RNAs were ranked by fold change in expression between tumours that subsequently metastasised versus those that did not. The top ranked gene was then validated for its prognostic value for metastatic progression in three additional independent cohorts. 95% of the gene expression assays were done in a Clinical Laboratory Improvements Amendments certified laboratory facility. All genes were assessed for their ability to predict metastatic progression by receiver-operating-curve area-under-the-curve analyses. Multivariate analyses were done for the primary endpoint of metastatic progression, with variables including Gleason score, preoperative prostate-specific antigen concentration, seminal vesicle invasion, surgical margin status, extracapsular extension, lymph node invasion, and expression of the highest ranked gene.

Findings

1008 patients were included in the study: 545 in the discovery cohort and 463 in the validation cohorts. The long non-coding RNA SChLAP1 was identified as the highest-ranked overexpressed gene in cancers with metastatic progression. Validation in three independent cohorts confirmed the prognostic value of SChLAP1 for metastatic progression. On multivariate modelling, SChLAP1 expression (high vs low) independently predicted metastasis within 10 years (odds ratio [OR] 2·45, 95% CI 1·70-3·53; p<0·0001). The only other variable that independently predicted metastasis within 10 years was Gleason score (8-10 vs 5-7; OR 2·14, 95% CI 1·77-2·58; p<0·0001).

Interpretation

We identified and validated high SChLAP1 expression as significantly prognostic for metastatic disease progression of prostate cancer. Our findings suggest that further development of SChLAP1 as a potential biomarker, for treatment intensification in aggressive prostate cancer, warrants future study.

Funding

Prostate Cancer Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Department of Defense, Early Detection Research Network, Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, and Howard Hughes Medical Institute.

Purpose: Current clinical parameters do not stratify indolent from aggressive prostate cancer. Aggressive prostate cancer, defined by the progression from localized disease to metastasis, is responsible for the majority of prostate cancer-associated mortality. Recent gene expression profiling has proven successful in predicting the outcome of prostate cancer patients; however, they have yet to provide targeted therapy approaches that could inhibit a patient's progression to metastatic disease.Experimental Design: We have interrogated a total of seven primary prostate cancer cohorts (n = 1,900), two metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer datasets (n = 293), and one prospective cohort (n = 1,385) to assess the impact of TOP2A and EZH2 expression on prostate cancer cellular program and patient outcomes. We also performed IHC staining for TOP2A and EZH2 in a cohort of primary prostate cancer patients (n = 89) with known outcome. Finally, we explored the therapeutic potential of a combination therapy targeting both TOP2A and EZH2 using novel prostate cancer-derived murine cell lines.Results: We demonstrate by genome-wide analysis of independent primary and metastatic prostate cancer datasets that concurrent TOP2A and EZH2 mRNA and protein upregulation selected for a subgroup of primary and metastatic patients with more aggressive disease and notable overlap of genes involved in mitotic regulation. Importantly, TOP2A and EZH2 in prostate cancer cells act as key driving oncogenes, a fact highlighted by sensitivity to combination-targeted therapy.Conclusions: Overall, our data support further assessment of TOP2A and EZH2 as biomarkers for early identification of patients with increased metastatic potential that may benefit from adjuvant or neoadjuvant targeted therapy approaches. Clin Cancer Res; 23(22); 7072-83. ©2017 AACR.

Background

Prostate cancer (PCa) is a clinically heterogeneous disease. The creation of an expression-based subtyping model based on prostate-specific biological processes was sought.

Methods

Unsupervised machine learning of gene expression profiles from prospectively collected primary prostate tumors (training, n = 32,000; evaluation, n = 68,547) was used to create a prostate subtyping classifier (PSC) based on basal versus luminal cell expression patterns and other gene signatures relevant to PCa biology. Subtype molecular pathways and clinical characteristics were explored in five other clinical cohorts.

Results

Clustering derived four subtypes: luminal differentiated (LD), luminal proliferating (LP), basal immune (BI), and basal neuroendocrine (BN). LP and LD tumors both had higher androgen receptor activity. LP tumors also had a higher expression of cell proliferation genes, MYC activity, and characteristics of homologous recombination deficiency. BI tumors possessed significant interferon γactivity and immune infiltration on immunohistochemistry. BN tumors were characterized by lower androgen receptor activity expression, lower immune infiltration, and enrichment with neuroendocrine expression patterns. Patients with LD tumors had less aggressive tumor characteristics and the longest time to metastasis after surgery. Only patients with BI tumors derived benefit from radiotherapy after surgery in terms of time to metastasis (hazard ratio [HR], 0.09; 95% CI, 0.01-0.71; n = 855). In a phase 3 trial that randomized patients with metastatic PCa to androgen deprivation with or without docetaxel (n = 108), only patients with LP tumors derived survival benefit from docetaxel (HR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.09-0.51).

Conclusions

With the use of expression profiles from over 100,000 tumors, a PSC was developed that identified four subtypes with distinct biological and clinical features.

Plain language summary

Prostate cancer can behave in an indolent or aggressive manner and vary in how it responds to certain treatments. To differentiate prostate cancer on the basis of biological features, we developed a novel RNA signature by using data from over 100,000 prostate tumors-the largest data set of its kind. This signature can inform patients and physicians on tumor aggressiveness and susceptibilities to treatments to help personalize cancer management.

The trend toward precision-based therapeutic approaches dictated by molecular alterations offers substantial promise for men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). However, current approaches for molecular characterization are primarily tissue based, necessitating serial biopsies to understand changes over time and are limited by the challenges inherent to extracting genomic material from predominantly bone metastases. Therefore, a circulating tumor cell (CTC)-based assay was developed to determine gene expression across a panel of clinically relevant and potentially actionable prostate cancer-related genes. CTCs were isolated from the whole blood of mCRPC patients (n = 41) and multiplex qPCR was performed to evaluate expression of prostate cancer-related target genes (n = 78). A large fraction of patients (27/41, 66%) had detectable CTCs. Increased androgen receptor (AR) expression (70% of samples) and evidence of Wnt signaling (67% of samples) were observed. The TMPRSS2:ERG fusion was expressed in 41% of samples, and the aggressive prostate cancer-associated long noncoding RNA SChLAP1 was upregulated in 70%. WNT5a [HR 3.62, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.63-8.05, P = 0.002], AURKA (HR 5.56, 95% CI, 1.79-17.20, P = 0.003), and BMP7 (HR 3.86, 95% CI, 1.60-9.32, P = 0.003) were independently predictive of overall survival (FDR < 10%) after adjusting for a panel of previously established prognostic variables in mCRPC (Halabi nomogram). A model including Halabi, WNT5a, and AURKA expression, termed the miCTC score, outperformed the Halabi nomogram alone (AUC = 0.89 vs. AUC = 0.70). Understanding the molecular landscape of CTCs has utility in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with aggressive prostate cancer and provides an additional tool in the arsenal of precision-based therapeutic approaches in oncology.Implications: Analysis of CTC gene expression reveals a clinically prognostic "liquid biopsy" signature in patients with metastatic castrate-resistance prostate cancer. Mol Cancer Res; 16(4); 643-54. ©2018 AACR.