Background

Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation.

Methods

We constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures.

Results

Overall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together.

Conclusions

This model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.

Background

There have been various efforts to identify less costly but still accurate methods for monitoring the response to HIV treatment. We evaluated a pooling method to determine if this could improve screening efficiency and reduce costs while maintaining accuracy in Seoul, South Korea.

Methods

We conducted the first prospective study of pooled nucleic acid testing (NAT) using a 5 minipool + algorithm strategy versus individual viral load testing for patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) between November 2011 and August 2012 at an urban hospital in Seoul, South Korea. The viral load assay used has a lower level of detection of 20 HIV RNA copies/ml, and the cost per assay is US$ 136. The 5 minipool +algorithm strategy was applied and 43 pooled samples were evaluated. The relative efficiency and accuracy of the pooled NAT were compared with those of individual testing.

Results

Using the individual viral load assay, 15 of 215 (7%) plasma samples had more than 200 HIV RNA copies/ml. The pooled NAT using the 5 minipool + algorithm strategy was applied to 43 pooled samples; 111 tests were needed to test all samples when virologic failure was defined at HIV RNA ≥ 200 copies/ml. Therefore, 104 tests were saved over individual testing, with a relative efficiency of 0.48. When evaluating costs, a total of US$ 14,144 was saved for 215 individual samples during 10 months. The negative predictive value was 99.5% for all samples with HIV RNA ≥ 200 copies/ml.

Conclusions

The pooled NAT with 5 minipool + algorithm strategy seems to be a very promising approach to effectively monitor patients receiving ART and to save resources.

Molecular epidemiology can help clarify the properties and dynamics of HIV-1 transmission networks in both global and regional scales. We studied 143 HIV-1-infected individuals recruited from four medical centers of three cities in South Korea between April 2013 and May 2014. HIV-1 env V3 sequence data were generated (337-793 bp) and analyzed using a pairwise distance-based clustering approach to infer putative transmission networks. Participants whose viruses were ≤2.0% divergent according to Tamura-Nei 93 genetic distance were defined as clustering. We collected demographic, risk, and clinical data and analyzed these data in relation to clustering. Among 143 participants, we identified nine putative transmission clusters of different sizes (range 2-4 participants). The reported risk factor of participants were concordant in only one network involving two participants, that is, both individuals reported homosexual sex as their risk factor. The participants in the other eight networks did not report concordant risk factors, although they were phylogenetically linked. About half of the participants refused to report their risk factor. Overall, molecular epidemiology provides more information to understand local transmission networks and the risks associated with these networks.

Less costly but still accurate methods for monitoring HIV treatment response are needed. We prospectively evaluated if a qualitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification assay for virologic monitoring could maintain accuracy while reducing costs in Seoul, South Korea. We conducted the first prospective study comparing a qualitative PCR amplification of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) versus a commercial real time PCR assay (i.e., viral load) for virologic monitoring of 150 patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) between November 2011 and August 2012 at an urban hospital in Seoul, South Korea. A total of 215 blood plasma samples from 150 patients receiving ART for more than 6 months were evaluated. Using the individual viral load assay, 12 of 215 (5.6%) plasma samples had more than 500 HIV RNA copies/ml. The qualitative PCR amplification assay detected individual samples with ≥500 HIV RNA copies/ml with 100% sensitivity. The specificities of the qualitative PCR amplification of the HIV-1 RT assay were 94.1%, 93.6%, and 93.2% compared to the real time PCR at 500, 1,000, and 5,000 threshold of HIV RNA copies/ml, respectively, and $24,940 USD would have been saved for 150 patients during 10 months. The qualitative PCR amplification of the HIV-1 RT assay might be a useful approach to effectively monitor patients receiving ART and save resources.

In February 2018, the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in Korea approved tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) co-formulate for use in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for the prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of PrEP in men who have sex with men (MSM), a major risk group emerging in Korea. A dynamic compartmental model was developed for HIV transmission and progression in MSM aged 15-64 years. With a combined model including economic analysis, we estimated averted HIV infections, changes in HIV prevalence, discounted costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). PrEP was evaluated in both the general MSM and high-risk MSM populations and was assumed to reduce infection risk by 80%. Implementing PrEP in all MSM would avert 75.2% HIV infections and facilitate a gain of 37,372 QALYs at a cost of $274,822 per QALY gained over 20 years relative to the status quo. Initiating PrEP in high-risk MSM with an average of eight partners per year (around 20% of MSM) would improve the cost-effectiveness, averting 78.0% HIV infections and add 29,242 QALYs at a cost of $51,597 per QALY gained, which is within the willingness-to-pay threshold for Korea of $56,000/QALY gained. This result was highly sensitive to annual PrEP costs, quality-of-life for people who are on PrEP, and initial HIV prevalence. Initiating PrEP in a larger proportion of MSM in Korea would prevent more HIV infections, but at an increasing cost per QALY gained. Focusing PrEP on higher risk MSM and any reduction in PrEP cost would improve cost-effectiveness.