Objective

To evaluate the risk of Alzheimer's disease-related neuropathology burden at autopsy given older adults' current cognitive state.

Method

Participants included 1,303 individuals who enrolled in the Religious Orders Study (ROS) and 1,789 who enrolled in the Rush Memory and Aging Project (MAP). Cognitive status was evaluated via standardized assessments of global cognition and episodic memory. At the time of analyses, about 50% of participants were deceased with the remaining numbers right censored. Using multi-state Cox proportional hazard models, we compared the cognitive status of all subjects alive at a given age and estimated future risk of dying with different AD-related neuropathologies. Endpoints considered were Braak Stages (0-2, 3-4, 5-6), CERAD (0, 1, 2, 3), and TDP-43 (0, 1, 2, 3) level.

Results

For all three pathological groupings (Braak, CERAD, TDP-43), we found that a cognitive test score one standard deviation below average put individuals at up to three times the risk for being diagnosed with late stage AD at autopsy according to pathological designations. The effect remained significant after adjusting for sex, APOE-e4 status, smoking status, education level, and vascular health scores.

Conclusion

Applying multi-state modeling techniques, we were able to identify those at risk of exhibiting specific levels of neuropathology based on current cognitive test performance. This approach presents new and approachable possibilities in clinical settings for diagnosis and treatment development programs.

The original Human Connectome Project yielded a rich data set on structural and functional connectivity in a large sample of healthy young adults using improved methods of data acquisition, analysis, and sharing. More recent efforts are extending this approach to include infants, children, older adults, and brain disorders. This paper introduces and describes the Human Connectome Project in Aging (HCP-A), which is currently recruiting 1200 + healthy adults aged 36 to 100+, with a subset of 600 + participants returning for longitudinal assessment. Four acquisition sites using matched Siemens Prisma 3T MRI scanners with centralized quality control and data analysis are enrolling participants. Data are acquired across multimodal imaging and behavioral domains with a focus on factors known to be altered in advanced aging. MRI acquisitions include structural (whole brain and high resolution hippocampal) plus multiband resting state functional (rfMRI), task fMRI (tfMRI), diffusion MRI (dMRI), and arterial spin labeling (ASL). Behavioral characterization includes cognitive (such as processing speed and episodic memory), psychiatric, metabolic, and socioeconomic measures as well as assessment of systemic health (with a focus on menopause via hormonal assays). This dataset will provide a unique resource for examining how brain organization and connectivity changes across typical aging, and how these differences relate to key characteristics of aging including alterations in hormonal status and declining memory and general cognition. A primary goal of the HCP-A is to make these data freely available to the scientific community, supported by the Connectome Coordination Facility (CCF) platform for data quality assurance, preprocessing and basic analysis, and shared via the NIMH Data Archive (NDA). Here we provide the rationale for our study design and sufficient details of the resource for scientists to plan future analyses of these data. A companion paper describes the related Human Connectome Project in Development (HCP-D, Somerville et al., 2018), and the image acquisition protocol common to both studies (Harms et al., 2018).

Approximately 30% of older adults exhibit the neuropathological features of Alzheimer's disease without signs of cognitive impairment. Yet, little is known about the genetic factors that allow these potentially resilient individuals to remain cognitively unimpaired in the face of substantial neuropathology. We performed a large, genome-wide association study (GWAS) of two previously validated metrics of cognitive resilience quantified using a latent variable modelling approach and representing better-than-predicted cognitive performance for a given level of neuropathology. Data were harmonized across 5108 participants from a clinical trial of Alzheimer's disease and three longitudinal cohort studies of cognitive ageing. All analyses were run across all participants and repeated restricting the sample to individuals with unimpaired cognition to identify variants at the earliest stages of disease. As expected, all resilience metrics were genetically correlated with cognitive performance and education attainment traits (P-values < 2.5 × 10-20), and we observed novel correlations with neuropsychiatric conditions (P-values < 7.9 × 10-4). Notably, neither resilience metric was genetically correlated with clinical Alzheimer's disease (P-values > 0.42) nor associated with APOE (P-values > 0.13). In single variant analyses, we observed a genome-wide significant locus among participants with unimpaired cognition on chromosome 18 upstream of ATP8B1 (index single nucleotide polymorphism rs2571244, minor allele frequency = 0.08, P = 2.3 × 10-8). The top variant at this locus (rs2571244) was significantly associated with methylation in prefrontal cortex tissue at multiple CpG sites, including one just upstream of ATPB81 (cg19596477; P = 2 × 10-13). Overall, this comprehensive genetic analysis of resilience implicates a putative role of vascular risk, metabolism, and mental health in protection from the cognitive consequences of neuropathology, while also providing evidence for a novel resilience gene along the bile acid metabolism pathway. Furthermore, the genetic architecture of resilience appears to be distinct from that of clinical Alzheimer's disease, suggesting that a shift in focus to molecular contributors to resilience may identify novel pathways for therapeutic targets.