Background

Efforts to protect residents in nursing homes involve non-pharmaceutical interventions, testing, and vaccine. We sought to quantify the effect of testing and vaccine strategies on the attack rate, length of the epidemic, and hospitalization.

Methods

We developed an agent-based model to simulate the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among resident and staff agents in a nursing home. Interactions between 172 residents and 170 staff based on data from a nursing home in Los Angeles, CA. Scenarios were simulated assuming different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions, testing frequencies, and vaccine efficacy to reduce transmission.

Results

Under the hypothetical scenario of widespread SARS-CoV-2 in the community, 3-day testing frequency minimized the attack rate and the time to eradicate an outbreak. Prioritization of vaccine among staff or staff and residents minimized the cumulative number of infections and hospitalization, particularly in the scenario of high probability of an introduction. Reducing the probability of a viral introduction eased the demand on testing and vaccination rate to decrease infections and hospitalizations.

Conclusions

Improving frequency of testing from 7-days to 3-days minimized the number of infections and hospitalizations, despite widespread community transmission. Vaccine prioritization of staff provides the best protection strategy when the risk of viral introduction is high.

Zika virus (ZIKV) is unique among mosquito-borne flaviviruses in that it is also vertically and sexually transmitted by humans. The male reproductive tract is thought to be a ZIKV reservoir; however, the reported magnitude and duration of viral persistence in male genital tissues vary widely in humans and non-human primate models. ZIKV tissue and cellular tropism and potential effects on male fertility also remain unclear. The objective of this study was to resolve these questions by analyzing archived genital tissues from 51 ZIKV-inoculated male macaques and correlating data on plasma viral kinetics, tissue tropism, and ZIKV-induced pathological changes in the reproductive tract. We hypothesized that ZIKV would persist in the male macaque genital tract for longer than there was detectable viremia, where it would localize to germ and epithelial cells and associate with lesions. We detected ZIKV RNA and infectious virus in testis, epididymis, seminal vesicle, and prostate gland. In contrast to prepubertal males, sexually mature macaques were significantly more likely to harbor persistent ZIKV RNA or infectious virus somewhere in the genital tract, with detection as late as 60 days post-inoculation. ZIKV RNA localized primarily to testicular stem cells/sperm precursors and epithelial cells, including Sertoli cells, epididymal duct epithelium, and glandular epithelia of the seminal vesicle and prostate gland. ZIKV infection was associated with microscopic evidence of inflammation in the epididymis and prostate gland of sexually mature males, pathologies that were absent in uninfected controls, which could have significant effects on male fertility. The findings from this study increase our understanding of persistent ZIKV infection which can inform risk of sexual transmission during assisted reproductive therapies as well as potential impacts on male fertility.