- Nunes, Marcio RT;
- Palacios, Gustavo;
- Faria, Nuno Rodrigues;
- Sousa, Edivaldo Costa;
- Pantoja, Jamilla A;
- Rodrigues, Sueli G;
- Carvalho, Valéria L;
- Medeiros, Daniele BA;
- Savji, Nazir;
- Baele, Guy;
- Suchard, Marc A;
- Lemey, Philippe;
- Vasconcelos, Pedro FC;
- Lipkin, W Ian
- Editor(s): Caccone, Adalgisa
Dengue virus and its four serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4) infect 390 million people and are implicated in at least 25,000 deaths annually, with the largest disease burden in tropical and subtropical regions. We investigated the spatial dynamics of DENV-1, DENV-2 and DENV-3 in Brazil by applying a statistical framework to complete genome sequences. For all three serotypes, we estimated that the introduction of new lineages occurred within 7 to 10-year intervals. New lineages were most likely to be imported from the Caribbean region to the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, and then to disperse at a rate of approximately 0.5 km/day. Joint statistical analysis of evolutionary, epidemiological and ecological data indicates that aerial transportation of humans and/or vector mosquitoes, rather than Aedes aegypti infestation rates or geographical distances, determine dengue virus spread in Brazil.