Since the late 1990s, the share of agricultural workers who migrate within the United States fell by about 60%. On average over this period, one-third of the drop in the migration rate was due to changes in the demographic makeup of the workforce, while two-thirds was due to government and institutional changes in the market. However, in recent years, demographic change were responsible for nearly half of the overall change.

The share of agricultural workers who migrate within the United States has fallen by approximately 60% since the late 1990s. To explain this decline in the migration rate, we estimate annual migration - choice models using data from the National Agricultural Workers Survey for 1989 – 2009. On average over the last decade of the sample, one - third of the fall in the migration rate was due to changes in the demographic composition of the workforce, while two - thirds was due to changes in coefficients (“structural” change). In some years, demographic changes were responsible for half of the overall change.