CEDSS (Community Energy Demand Social Simulator) is an empirical agent-based model designed and built as part of a multi-method social science project investigating the determinants of domestic energy demand. Ideally, empirical modellers, within and beyond social simulation, would prefer to work from an integrated dataset, gathered for the purposes of developing the model. In practice, many have to work with less than ideal data, often including processed data from multiple sources external to the project. Moreover, what data will be required may not be clear at the start of the project. This paper describes the approach to dealing with these factors taken in developing CEDSS, and presents the completed model together with an outline of the calibration and validation procedure used. The discussion section draws together the most distinctive features of empirical data collection, processing and use for and in CEDSS, and argues that the approach taken is sufficiently robust to underpin the model’s purpose – to generate scenarios of domestic energy demand to 2049.

Background

Pathogens with a global distribution face diverse biotic and abiotic conditions across populations. Moreover, the ecological and evolutionary history of each population is unique. Xylella fastidiosa is a xylem-dwelling bacterium infecting multiple plant hosts, often with detrimental effects. As a group, X. fastidiosa is divided into distinct subspecies with allopatric historical distributions and patterns of multiple introductions from numerous source populations. The capacity of X. fastidiosa to successfully colonize and cause disease in naïve plant hosts varies among subspecies, and potentially, among populations. Within Central America (i.e. Costa Rica) two X. fastidiosa subspecies coexist: the native subsp. fastidiosa and the introduced subsp. pauca. Using whole genome sequences, the patterns of gene gain/loss, genomic introgression, and genetic diversity were characterized within Costa Rica and contrasted to other X. fastidiosa populations.

Results

Within Costa Rica, accessory and core genome analyses showed a highly malleable genome with numerous intra- and inter-subspecific gain/loss events. Likewise, variable levels of inter-subspecific introgression were found within and between both coexisting subspecies; nonetheless, the direction of donor/recipient subspecies to the recombinant segments varied. Some strains appeared to recombine more frequently than others; however, no group of genes or gene functions were overrepresented within recombinant segments. Finally, the patterns of genetic diversity of subsp. fastidiosa in Costa Rica were consistent with those of other native populations (i.e. subsp. pauca in Brazil).

Conclusions

Overall, this study shows the importance of characterizing local evolutionary and ecological history in the context of world-wide pathogen distribution.

Latinxs continue to be overrepresented in the U.S. HIV epidemic. We examined the transnational practices, family relationships, and realities of life of Mexicans and Puerto Ricans living with HIV in the continental U.S. We conducted qualitative interviews with 44 persons of Mexican and Puerto Rican origin participating in HIV care engagement interventions. Framework Analysis guided our data analysis. Among participants, a strong connection to the family was intertwined with transnational practices: communication, travel to their place of origin to maintain family ties, and material and/or emotional support. Separation from their family contributed to social isolation. Many participants lacked emotional support regarding living with HIV. Transnational practices and family relationships were intrinsic to the experiences of Mexicans and Puerto Ricans living with HIV in the continental U.S.; and may help understand the points of reference, health-seeking behaviors, and support sources that influence their health, well-being and engagement in HIV care.

Interventions aiming to improve access to and retention in HIV care are optimized when they are tailored to clients' needs. This paper describes an initiative of interventions implemented by ten demonstration sites using a transnational framework to tailor services for Mexicans and Puerto Ricans living with HIV. Transnationalism describes how immigrants (and their children) exist in their "receiving" place (e.g., continental U.S.) while simultaneously maintaining connections to their country or place of origin (e.g., Mexico). We describe interventions in terms of the strategies used, the theory informing design and the tailoring, and the integration of transnationalism. We argue how applying the transnational framework may improve the quality and effectiveness of services in response to the initiative's overall goal, which is to produce innovative, robust, evidence-informed strategies that go beyond traditional tailoring approaches for HIV interventions with Latino/as populations.

The effect of non-injection substance use on HIV viral load (VL) is understudied in international settings. Data are from HPTN063, a longitudinal observational study of HIV-infected individuals in Brazil, Thailand, and Zambia, with focus on men with VL data (Brazil = 146; Thailand = 159). Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) assessed whether non-injection substance use (stimulants, cannabis, alcohol, polysubstance) was associated with VL undetectability. ART adherence and depressive symptoms were examined as mediators of the association. In Thailand, substance use was not significantly associated with VL undetectability or ART adherence, but alcohol misuse among MSM was associated with increased odds of depression (AOR = 2.75; 95% CI 1.20, 6.32, p = 0.02). In Brazil, alcohol misuse by MSM was associated with decreased odds of undetectable VL (AOR = 0.34; 95% CI 0.13, 0.92, p = 0.03). Polysubstance use by heterosexual men in Brazil was associated with decreased odds of ART adherence (AOR = 0.25; 95% CI 0.08, 0.78, p = 0.02). VL suppression appears attainable among non-injection substance users. Substance use interventions among HIV-positive men should address depression, adherence, and VL undetectability.

Young Latino men who have sex with men (MSM) are a highly vulnerable population for HIV infection. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a novel biomedical HIV prevention tool that may aid in reducing the disparity in HIV incidence among Latino MSM. However, PrEP use is disproportionally low among Latino MSM and, therefore, identifying barriers along the PrEP continuum of care (the "PrEP cascade") would provide insight into how to best deploy PrEP interventions. Syndemics theory is a prominent framework employed in HIV prevention; however, to date, no known studies have applied this theory to PrEP. Thus, the aim of the current study was to explore the association between syndemics and the PrEP cascade, including the degree to which psychosocial and structural syndemic constructs are related to the PrEP cascade. Participants were 151 young Latino MSM (M age = 24 years; SD = 3) residing in San Diego, California, who completed a battery of online self-report measures. Results indicated high levels of syndemic indicators and varying levels of engagement across the PrEP cascade. As syndemic indicators increased, the odds of engagement across the PrEP cascade were significantly lowered. Psychosocial and structural syndemic factors accounted for unique variance in the PrEP cascade. Results highlight the need for combination interventions that address both psychosocial and structural barriers to PrEP use and persistence among young Latino MSM.

Xylella fastidiosa is a plant-pathogenic bacterium recently introduced in Europe that is causing decline in olive trees in the South of Italy. Genetic studies have consistently shown that the bacterial genotype recovered from infected olive trees belongs to the sequence type ST53 within subspecies pauca. This genotype, ST53, has also been reported to occur in Costa Rica. The ancestry of ST53 was recently clarified, showing it contains alleles that are monophyletic with those of subsp. pauca in South America. To more robustly determine the phylogenetic placement of ST53 within X. fastidiosa, we performed a comparative analysis based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and the study of the pan-genome of the 27 currently public available whole genome sequences of X. fastidiosa. The resulting maximum-parsimony and maximum likelihood trees constructed using the SNPs and the pan-genome analysis are consistent with previously described X. fastidiosa taxonomy, distinguishing the subsp. fastidiosa, multiplex, pauca, sandyi, and morus. Within the subsp. pauca, the Italian and three Costa Rican isolates, all belonging to ST53, formed a compact phylotype in a clade divergent from the South American pauca isolates, also distinct from the recently described coffee isolate CFBP8072 imported into Europe from Ecuador. These findings were also supported by the gene characterization of a conjugative plasmid shared by all the four ST53 isolates. Furthermore, isolates of the ST53 clade possess an exclusive locus encoding a putative ATP-binding protein belonging to the family of histidine kinase-like ATPase gene, which is not present in isolates from the subspecies multiplex, sandyi, and pauca, but was detected in ST21 isolates of the subspecies fastidiosa from Costa Rica. The clustering and distinctiveness of the ST53 isolates supports the hypothesis of their common origin, and the limited genetic diversity among these isolates suggests this is an emerging clade within subsp. pauca.

Young Latino men who have sex with men (MSM) are a highly vulnerable population for HIV infection. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a novel biomedical HIV prevention tool that may aid in reducing the disparity in HIV incidence among Latino MSM. However, PrEP use is disproportionally low among Latino MSM and, therefore, identifying barriers along the PrEP continuum of care (the "PrEP cascade") would provide insight into how to best deploy PrEP interventions. Syndemics theory is a prominent framework employed in HIV prevention; however, to date, no known studies have applied this theory to PrEP. Thus, the aim of the current study was to explore the association between syndemics and the PrEP cascade, including the degree to which psychosocial and structural syndemic constructs are related to the PrEP cascade. Participants were 151 young Latino MSM (M age = 24 years; SD = 3) residing in San Diego, California, who completed a battery of online self-report measures. Results indicated high levels of syndemic indicators and varying levels of engagement across the PrEP cascade. As syndemic indicators increased, the odds of engagement across the PrEP cascade were significantly lowered. Psychosocial and structural syndemic factors accounted for unique variance in the PrEP cascade. Results highlight the need for combination interventions that address both psychosocial and structural barriers to PrEP use and persistence among young Latino MSM.

Background: The accurate diagnosis of neurocognitive disorders in illiterate Peruvian populations is challenging, largely owing to scarcity of brief cognitive screening tools (BCST) validated in these diverse populations. The Peruvian version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale (RUDAS-PE) is a BCST that relies minimally on educational attainment and has shown good diagnostic accuracy in an urban illiterate population in Peru, yet its psychometric properties in illiterate populations in rural settings of the country have not been previously investigated. Objectives: To establish the diagnostic accuracy of the RUDAS-PE compared to expert clinical diagnosis using the Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) Scale in healthy and cognitively impaired illiterate persons living in two culturally and geographically distinct rural communities of Peru. Methods: A cross-sectional, population-based study of residents ≥ 50 years of age living in the Peruvian rural communities of Santa Clotilde and Chuquibambilla. A total of 129 subjects (76 from Santa Clotilde and 53 from Chuquibambilla) were included in this study. Gold standard diagnostic neurocognitive evaluation was based on expert neurological history and examination and administration of the CDR. Receiver operating characteristics, areas under the curve (AUC), and logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the performance of RUDAS-PE compared to expert gold standard diagnosis. Results: Compared to gold standard diagnosis, the RUDAS-PE was better at correctly discriminating between MCI and dementia than discriminating between MCI and controls in both sites (97.0% vs. 76.2% correct classification in Chuquibambilla; 90.0% vs. 64.7% in Santa Clotilde). In Chuquibambilla, the area under the curve (AUC) of the RUDAS to discriminate between dementia and MCI was 99.4% (optimal cutoff at <18), whereas between MCI and controls it was 82.8% (optimal cutoff at <22). In Santa Clotilde, the area under the curve (AUC) of the RUDAS to discriminate between dementia and MCI was 99.1% (optimal cutoff at <17), whereas between MCI and controls it was 75.5% (optimal cutoff at <21). Conclusions: The RUDAS-PE has acceptable psychometric properties and performed well in its ability to discriminate MCI and dementia in two cohorts of illiterate older adults from two distinct rural Peruvian communities.

Heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSPGs) are an important constituent of the macrophage glycocalyx and extracellular microenvironment. To examine their role in atherogenesis, we inactivated the biosynthetic gene N-acetylglucosamine N-deacetylase-N-sulfotransferase 1 (Ndst1) in macrophages and crossbred the strain to Ldlr(-/-) mice. When placed on an atherogenic diet, Ldlr(-/-)Ndst1(f/f)LysMCre(+) mice had increased atherosclerotic plaque area and volume compared to Ldlr(-/-) mice. Diminished sulfation of heparan sulfate resulted in enhanced chemokine expression; increased macrophages in plaques; increased expression of ACAT2, a key enzyme in cholesterol ester storage; and increased foam cell conversion. Motif analysis of promoters of upregulated genes suggested increased type I interferon signaling, which was confirmed by elevation of STAT1 phosphorylation induced by IFN-β. The proinflammatory macrophages derived from Ndst1(f/f)LysMCre(+) mice also sensitized the animals to diet-induced obesity. We propose that macrophage HSPGs control basal activation of macrophages by maintaining type I interferon reception in a quiescent state through sequestration of IFN-β.