The polyphagous Asian vinegar fly Drosophila suzukii (spotted wing Drosophila) is a native of Eastern and Southeastern Asia. It emerged as an important invasive insect pest of berries and stone fruits in the Americas and Europe beginning in 2008. Species distribution models are commonly used for analyzing the extant and potential range expansion of invasive species. Previous modeling efforts for D. suzukii include a degree-day model, a MaxEnt ecological niche model, a demographic model incorporating the effects of temperature, and a preliminary mechanistic physiologically-based demographic model (PBDM). In the present analysis, we refine the PBDM for D. suzukii based on biological data reported in the literature. The PBDM is used to assess the effects of temperature and relative humidity from a recently published global climate dataset (AgMERRA) on the prospective geographic distribution and relative abundance of the pest in the USA and Mexico, and in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. Our focus is on areas of recent invasion and of predicted higher invasiveness in these areas. Although the species is native to Asia and is of putative temperate origins, it has established in subtropical to north temperate zones worldwide where it infests a wide range of wild and domesticated berries and stone fruits. The model captures the observed phenology of D. suzukii at specific locations, as well as the potential geographic distribution and relative favorability across larger regions. The main limiting factor is cold winter temperature in northern areas, though high temperatures and low relative humidity may be limiting in arid areas. The effect of greater cold tolerance in winter morph adults is explored.

Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae) population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US) and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix) and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit). Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations.

Drosophila suzukii causes economic damage to berry and stone fruit worldwide. Laboratory-generated datasets were standardized and combined on the basis of degree days (DD), using Gompertz and Cauchy curves for survival and reproduction. Eggs transitioned to larvae at 20.3 DD; larvae to pupae at 118.1 DD; and pupae to adults at 200 DD. All adults are expected to have died at 610 DD. Oviposition initiates at 210 DD and gradually increases to a maximum of 15 eggs per DD at 410 DD and subsequently decreases to zero at 610 DD. These data were used as the basis for a DD cohort-level population model. Laboratory survival under extreme temperatures when DD did not accumulate was described by a Gompertz curve based on calendar days. We determined that the initiation of the reproductive period of late dormant field-collected female D. suzukii ranged from 50 to 800 DD from January 1. This suggests that D. suzukii females can reproduce early in the season and are probably limited by availability of early host plants. Finally, we used the DD population model to examine hypothetical stage-specific mortality effects of IPM practices from insecticides and parasitoids at the field level. We found that adulticides applied during the early season will result in the largest comparative population decrease. It is clear from model outputs that parasitism levels comparable to those found in field studies may have a limited effect on population growth. Novel parasitoid guilds could therefore be improved and would be valuable for IPM of D. suzukii.