One of the most important political questions of our time is: Where is Osama bin Laden? He is alleged to be responsible for inspiring and financing, if not exactly organizing, the September 11, 2001 attacks on the New York Trade Center and the Pentagon that resulted in the deaths of over 3,000 people. We use biogeographic theories associated with the distribution of life and extinction (distance-decay theory, island biogeography theory, and life history characteristics) and remote sensing data (Landsat ETM+, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Defense Meteorological Satellite Program-Operational Linescan System, QuickBird) over three spatial scales (global, regional, local) to identify where bin Laden is most probably currently located. There is a 98% probability that he is in Kurram within the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Northwest Pakistan based on distance-decay theory. Island biogeography theory based on “city islands” further predicts that he is in the largest and least isolated city of that area, Parachinar. A systematic search across 1-kilometer grids within Parachinar identified three buildings (N 33.901944° E 70.093746°, N 33.911694° E 70.0959°, N 33.888207° E 70.113308°) that match all six of bin Laden’s life history characteristics (for example, security, privacy, resources, and quality of life needs). We believe that our work involves the first scientific approach to establishing his current location. The methods are repeatable and could easily be updated with new information obtained from the US intelligence community.

There is an increasing interest in assessing the strengths and weaknesses of remote sensing imagery and geographic information system products as they relate to estimating populations at risk before, during, and after natural hazards. This research examines the spatial and temporal effectiveness of satellites and extent of damage products that were created for Banda Aceh, Indonesia after the 26 December 2004 tsunami. SPOT, FORMOSAT, MODIS and Landsat ETM+ imagery provides high temporal resolution data within three days of the tsunami. However, high-resolution commercial satellites (Quickbird, IKONOS) provide the most accurate data that can be used to assess infrastructure damage in cities like Banda Aceh before and after natural disasters. Of the six extent of damage products (USAID, USGS, Dartmouth Flood Observatory, DLR, SERTIT, DPRC) created after the tsunami, DLR provided the most accurate data on the extent of damage in Banda Aceh (94% agreement with Quickbird imagery). When these products are combined with population data and digital elevation models, estimates of populations at risk can be created to identify the areas most severely affected by a natural disaster. Pre-tsunami and post-tsunami imagery combined with imagery collected two and a half years after the tsunami show an extensive reconstruction of all structure types. Satellite imagery and geographic information system methods used in this research are most effective in regions where field data is sparse or difficult to collect within the first week following a natural disaster.