Early epithelial injury after lung transplantation may contribute to development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS). We evaluated the relationship between early postoperative soluble receptor for advanced glycation end-product (sRAGE) levels, a marker of type I alveolar cell injury and BOS. We performed a cohort study of 106 lung transplant recipients between 2002 and 2006 at the University of Pennsylvania with follow-up through 2010. Plasma sRAGE was measured 6 and 24 h after transplantation. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between sRAGE and time to BOS, defined according to ISHLT guidelines. Sixty (57%) subjects developed BOS. The average time to BOS was 3.4 years. sRAGE levels measured at 6 h (HR per SD of sRAGE: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.11, 2.57, p = 0.02) and 24 h (HR per SD of sRAGE: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.14, 2.65, p = 0.01) were associated with an increased hazard of BOS. Multivariable Cox regression indicated this relationship was independent of potential confounders. Elevated plasma sRAGE levels measured in the immediate postoperative period are associated with the development of BOS. Early epithelial injury after transplantation may contribute to the development of fibrosis in BOS.

Introduction: Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a significant contributor to early morbidity and mortality after lung transplantation. Increased vascular permeability in the allograft has been identified as a possible mechanism leading to PGD. Angiopoieti

Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a major cause of early mortality after lung transplant. We aimed to define objective estimates of PGD risk based on readily available clinical variables, using a prospective study of 11 centers in the Lung Transplant Outcomes Group (LTOG). Derivation included 1255 subjects from 2002 to 2010; with separate validation in 382 subjects accrued from 2011 to 2012. We used logistic regression to identify predictors of grade 3 PGD at 48/72 h, and decision curve methods to assess impact on clinical decisions. 211/1255 subjects in the derivation and 56/382 subjects in the validation developed PGD. We developed three prediction models, where low-risk recipients had a normal BMI (18.5-25 kg/m(2) ), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/cystic fibrosis, and absent or mild pulmonary hypertension (mPAP<40 mmHg). All others were considered higher-risk. Low-risk recipients had a predicted PGD risk of 4-7%, and high-risk a predicted PGD risk of 15-18%. Adding a donor-smoking lung to a higher-risk recipient significantly increased PGD risk, although risk did not change in low-risk recipients. Validation demonstrated that probability estimates were generally accurate and that models worked best at baseline PGD incidences between 5% and 25%. We conclude that valid estimates of PGD risk can be produced using readily available clinical variables.