Summary: Environmental change can affect species directly by altering their physical environment and indirectly by altering the abundance of interacting species. A key challenge at the interface of community ecology and conservation biology is to predict how direct and indirect effects combine to influence response in a changing environment. In particular, little is known about how direct and indirect effects on biodiversity develop over time or their potential to influence ecosystem function. We studied how nitrogen (N), winter precipitation (snow) and warming influenced diversity and ecosystem function over 6 years in alpine tundra. We used path analyses to partition direct effects of environmental manipulations from indirect effects due to changes in the abundance of two dominant plants. We hypothesize that (i) indirect effects will develop more slowly but will become stronger than direct effects over time and (ii) after 6 years, indirect effects will more strongly influence diversity while direct effects will influence ecosystem function. Indirect effects of N on diversity were consistently stronger than direct effects and actually developed quickly, prior to direct effects. Direct effects of snow on diversity were detected in year 2 but then subsequently were reversed, while indirect effects were detected in year 4 and grew stronger over time. Overall in year 6, indirect effects were much stronger than direct effects on diversity. Direct effects predominated for three of four ecosystem functions we measured (productivity, N mineralization, winter N availability). The only indirect effects we found were that N and snow indirectly affected microbial biomass N by influencing Geum abundance. Across all four ecosystem measures, indirect effects were infrequent and weaker than direct effects. Synthesis. Increasing indirect effects on diversity over time indicate that short-term experiments or monitoring of natural systems may underestimate the full magnitude of global change effects on plant communities. Moreover, explicitly accounting for changes in dominant plant abundance may be necessary for forecasting plant community response to environmental change. Conversely, weak indirect effects for ecosystem processes suggest that predicting ecosystem function without knowledge of plant responses to global change may be possible. Increasing indirect effects on diversity over time indicate that short-term experiments or monitoring of natural systems may underestimate the full magnitude of global change effects on plant communities. Explicitly accounting for changes in dominant plant abundance may be necessary for forecasting plant community response to environmental change. Conversely, weak indirect effects for ecosystem processes suggest that predicting ecosystem function without knowledge of plant responses to global change may be possible.

National Park Service (NPS) units in the northern Great Plains (NGP) were established to preserve and interpret the history of America, protect and showcase unusual geology and paleontology, and provide a home for vanishing large wildlife. A unifying feature among these national parks, monuments, and historic sites is mixed-grass prairie, which not only provides background scenery but is the very foundation of many park missions. As recognition of the prairie’s importance to park fundamental resources and values has grown, so too has the realization that invasive plants threaten these values by reducing native species diversity, altering food webs, and marring the visitor experience. Parks manage invasive species despite uncertainties in treatment effectiveness because management cannot wait for research to provide definitive answers. Under these circumstances, adaptive management (AM) is an appropriate approach. In the NGP, we formed a collaborative adaptive vegetation management team to apply AM towards reducing invasive species (with a focus on exotic annual grasses) and improving native vegetation conditions. In our AM framework, the team uses a Bayesian model built from NPS Inventory & Monitoring and Fire Effects monitoring data and experimental results to predict the effects of management actions on park management units, according to those units’ vegetation condition and management history. These predictions inform management decisions, which are then applied.

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.