Azithromycin mass drug administration decreases child mortality but also selects for antibiotic resistance. Herein, we evaluate macrolide resistance of nasopharyngeal Streptococcus pneumoniae after azithromycin MDA. In a cluster-randomized trial, children 1-59 months received azithromycin or placebo biannually. Fifteen villages from each arm were randomly selected for antimicrobial resistance testing, and 10-15 randomly selected swabs from enrolled children at each village were processed for S. pneumoniae isolation and resistance testing. The primary prespecified outcome was macrolide resistance fraction for azithromycin versus placebo villages at 36 months. Secondary non-prespecified outcomes were comparisons of azithromycin and placebo for: 1) macrolide resistance at 12, 24, and 36 months; 2) nonmacrolide resistance at 36 months; and 3) suspected-erm mutation. At 36 months, 423 swabs were obtained and 322 grew S. pneumoniae, (azithromycin: 146/202, placebo: 176/221). Mean resistance prevalence was non-significantly higher in treatment than placebo (mixed-effects model: 14.6% vs. 8.9%; OR = 2.0, 95% CI: 0.99-3.97). However, when all time points were evaluated, macrolide resistance prevalence was significantly higher in the azithromycin group (β = 0.102, 95% CI: 0.04-0.167). For all nonmacrolides, resistance prevalence at 36 months was not different between the two groups. Azithromycin and placebo were not different for suspected-erm mutation prevalence. Macrolide resistance was higher in the azithromycin group over all time points, but not at 36 months. Although this suggests resistance may not continue to increase after biannual MDA, more studies are needed to clarify when MDA can safely decrease mortality and morbidity in lower- and middle-income countries.

Mathematical models predict that the prevalence of infection in different communities where an infectious disease is disappearing should approach a geometric distribution. Trachoma programs offer an opportunity to test this hypothesis, as the World Health Organization (WHO) has targeted trachoma to be eliminated as a public health concern by the year 2020. We assess the distribution of the community prevalence of childhood ocular chlamydia infection from periodic, cross-sectional surveys in two areas of Ethiopia. These surveys were taken in a controlled setting, where infection was documented to be disappearing over time. For both sets of surveys, the geometric distribution had the most parsimonious fit of the distributions tested, and goodness-of-fit testing was consistent with the prevalence of each community being drawn from a geometric distribution. When infection is disappearing, the single sufficient parameter describing a geometric distribution captures much of the distributional information found from examining every community. The relatively heavy tail of the geometric suggests that the presence of an occasional high-prevalence community is to be expected, and does not necessarily reflect a transmission hot spot or program failure. A single cross-sectional survey can reveal which direction a program is heading. A geometric distribution of the prevalence of infection across communities may be an encouraging sign, consistent with a disease on its way to eradication.

Background:Lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths, and trachoma are the five most prevalent neglected tropical diseases in the world, and each is frequently treated with mass drug administrations. We performed a s

Millions of doses of azithromycin are distributed each year for trachoma, yet the treatment efficacy of a single dose of azithromycin for ocular Chlamydia infection has not been well characterized. In this study, four villages in Niger received a mass azithromycin distribution for trachoma. All 426 children aged 0-5 years residing in the study villages were offered conjunctival swabbing every 6 months to test for ocular Chlamydia trachomatis. Among the children infected with ocular Chlamydia before treatment, 6% (95% CI: 2-15%) tested positive for ocular Chlamydia infection 6 months later, and 15% (95% CI: 7-28%) tested positive 12 months later. The most important predictor of post-treatment ocular Chlamydia infection was pretreatment ocular Chlamydia infection (relative risk: 3.5, 95% CI: 1.3-9.4). Although the 6-monthly monitoring schedule was suboptimal for testing the treatment efficacy of an antibiotic, these findings are nonetheless consistent with high treatment efficacy of a single dose of azithromycin and suggest that additional interventions might be most effective if targeted to those children infected prior to treatment.

Background/aims

Although tremendous progress towards the 2020 goal of global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been made, it will not be achieved. Future targets are now being considered. One option is changing the goal to eradication. We surveyed trachoma experts to assess beliefs related to trachoma eradication and determine perceived obstacles to achieving it.

Methods

We conducted a survey at the beginning of a trachoma eradication session at the 2019 Coalition for Operational Research on Neglected Tropical Diseases meeting in National Harbor, Maryland, USA. We asked respondents what the most important goal of azithromycin mass drug administration was for trachoma (control, elimination of infection or eradication) and if and when they believed trachoma eradication would occur. We then asked what the biggest obstacles were to global eradication.

Results

Fifty-six surveys were returned (95%). Most (91%) participants reported that the most important goal of azithromycin mass drug administration was control or elimination of infection, and 24% of participants reported that global eradication was not possible. Of the 76% who reported a year by which they believed trachoma could be eradicated, most fell between 2040 and 2050. Commonly cited barriers to global eradication included lack of surveillance tools to confirm eradication or monitor for infection recrudescence (32%) and lack of resources (23%).

Conclusions

Development of alternative indicators for trachoma surveillance and continued investment in trachoma programmes, particularly focused support in the most heavily affected populations, might increase enthusiasm for the feasibility of eradication.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends continuing azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA) for trachoma until endemic regions drop below 5% prevalence of active trachoma in children aged 1-9 years. Azithromycin targets the ocular strains of Chlamydia trachomatis that cause trachoma. Regions with low prevalence of active trachoma may have little if any ocular chlamydia, and, thus, may not benefit from azithromycin treatment. Understanding what happens to active trachoma and ocular chlamydia prevalence after stopping azithromycin MDA may improve future treatment decisions. We systematically reviewed published evidence for community prevalence of both active trachoma and ocular chlamydia after cessation of azithromycin distribution. We searched electronic databases for all peer-reviewed studies published before May 2020 that included at least 2 post-MDA surveillance surveys of ocular chlamydia and/or the active trachoma marker, trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence. We assessed trends in the prevalence of both indicators over time after stopping azithromycin MDA. Of 140 identified studies, 21 met inclusion criteria and were used for qualitative synthesis. Post-MDA, we found a gradual increase in ocular chlamydia infection prevalence over time, while TF prevalence generally gradually declined. Ocular chlamydia infection may be a better measurement tool compared to TF for detecting trachoma recrudescence in communities after stopping azithromycin MDA. These findings may guide future trachoma treatment and surveillance efforts.

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends annual mass azithromycin distribution until districts drop below 5% prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF). Districts with very low TF prevalence may have little or no transmission of the ocular strains of Chlamydia trachomatis that cause trachoma, and additional rounds of mass azithromycin distribution may not be useful. Here, we describe the protocol for a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate whether mass azithromycin distribution can be stopped prior to the current WHO guidelines.

Methods

The Azithromycin Reduction to Reach Elimination of Trachoma (ARRET) study is a 1:1 community randomized non-inferiority trial designed to evaluate whether mass azithromycin distribution can be stopped in districts with baseline prevalence of TF under 20%. Communities in Maradi, Niger are randomized after baseline assessment either to continued annual mass azithromycin distribution or stopping annual azithromycin distribution over a 3-year period. We will compare the prevalence of ocular C. trachomatis (primary outcome), TF and other clinical signs of trachoma, and serologic markers of trachoma after 3 years. We hypothesize that stopping annual azithromycin distribution will be non-inferior to continued annual azithromycin distributions for all markers of trachoma prevalence and transmission.

Discussion

The results of this trial are anticipated to provide potentially guideline-changing evidence for when mass azithromycin distributions can be stopped in low TF prevalence areas. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: This study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT04185402 ). Registered December 4, 2019; prospectively registered pre-results.

Background

The World Health Organization aims to control blinding trachoma by 2020. Decisions on whether to start and stop mass treatments and when to declare that control has been achieved are currently based on clinical examination data generated in population-based surveys. Thresholds are based on the district-level prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years. Forecasts of which districts may and may not meet TF control goals by the 2020 target date could affect resource allocation in the next few years.

Methods

We constructed a hidden Markov model fit to the prevalence of two clinical signs of trachoma and PCR data in 24 communities from the recent PRET-Niger trial. The prevalence of TF in children in each community at 36 months was forecast given data from earlier time points. Forecasts were scored by the likelihood of the observed results. We assessed whether use of TF with additional TI and PCR data rather than just the use of TF alone improves forecasts, and separately whether incorporating a delay in TF recovery is beneficial.

Results

Including TI and PCR data did not significantly improve forecasts of TF. Forecasts of TF prevalence at 36 months by the model with the delay in TF recovery were significantly better than forecasts by the model without the delay in TF recovery (p = 0.003). A zero-inflated truncated normal observation model was better than a truncated normal observation model, and better than a sensitivity-specificity observation model.

Conclusion

The results in this study suggest that future studies could consider using just TF data for forecasting, and should include a delay in TF recovery.

Trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00792922.