Variations in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its regional manifestation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), generate much of the nonseasonal variability in the winter climate over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Despite being an internal mode of the atmosphere, the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations (N/AO) exhibit a slightly red spectrum, varying on quasi-biennial (2–3 years) and quasi-decadal time scales. Such low-frequency variability is likely due to the coupling of the atmosphere to boundary conditions and/or external forcings. Here we show that Eurasian snow cover, particularly over eastern Siberia (ESB), exhibits quasi-biennial persistence similar to the N/AO. Furthermore, the snow-AO mechanism operates on quasi-biennial timescales, with fall ESB snow cover significantly related to vertically propagating Rossby wave activity and the N/AO for the next two to three winters. On the basis of land surface model simulations from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the interseasonal carryover of ESB snow is related to soil moisture anomalies and an evaporation-convection feedback. These findings suggest quasi-biennial persistence of the N/AO is partly due to land surface forcing in the form of both ESB snow and soil moisture anomalies.

The NCAR CAM3 GCM with prescribed, satellite-based snow albedo (SA) is used to investigate the remote effects of snow cover on Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter climate. A pair of 100 ensemble member experiments are integrated through the autumn-winter season, with prescribed high and low SA over Eurasia (EA). Similar to other non-CAM GCM studies using prescribed snow mass, anomalous EA snow albedo produces a wave activity pulse that propagates into the stratosphere, culminating in a negative phase Arctic Oscillation– (AO-) like surface response. This occurs for idealized but representative SA anomalies, as well as for more realistic SA anomalies. Similar experiments over North America (NA) and the entire NH are also performed. Unlike prior studies, anomalous NA snow yields a significant AO signal. Here, the local NA surface cooling elicits a transient eddy response, which propagates downstream to Eurasia, resulting in significant but short-lived cooling and upward propagating wave activity over Siberia. A negative AO-like response develops, primarily confined to the stratosphere/upper troposphere, which eventually gives way to a tropospheric AO-like response of the opposite phase, due to equatorward wave refraction and wave divergence. Reanalysis data support this NA snow-positive AO response. Snow forcing experiments for the whole NH, however, yield a weakened AO signal. This is due to a muted wavenumber-1 and -2 response caused by destructive interference between the background stationary wave and the corresponding Rossby wave response, which results in negligible wave activity reaching the stratosphere.

Variations in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its regional manifestation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), generate much of the nonseasonal variability in the winter climate over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Despite being an internal mode of the atmosphere, the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations (N/AO) exhibit a slightly red spectrum, varying on quasi-biennial (2-3 years) and quasi-decadal time scales. Such low-frequency variability is likely due to the coupling of the atmosphere to boundary conditions and/or external forcings. Here we show that Eurasian snow cover, particularly over eastern Siberia (ESB), exhibits quasi-biennial persistence similar to the N/AO. Furthermore, the snow-AO mechanism operates on quasi-biennial timescales, with fall ESB snow cover significantly related to vertically propagating Rossby wave activity and the N/AO for the next two to three winters. On the basis of land surface model simulations from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the interseasonal carryover of ESB snow is related to soil moisture anomalies and an evaporation-convection feedback. These findings suggest quasi-biennial persistence of the N/AO is partly due to land surface forcing in the form of both ESB snow and soil moisture anomalies.

Several recent studies have shown the width of the tropical belt has increased over the last several decades. The mechanisms driving tropical expansion are not well known and the recent expansion is underpredicted by state-of-the art GCMs. We use the CAM3 GCM to investigate how tropical width responds to idealized atmospheric heat sources, focusing on zonal displacement of the tropospheric jets. The heat sources include global and zonally restricted lower-tropospheric warmings and stratospheric coolings, which coarsely represent possible impacts of ozone or aerosol changes. Similar to prior studies with simplified GCMs, we find that stratospheric cooling – particularly at high-latitudes – shifts jets poleward and excites Northern and Southern Annular Mode (NAM/SAM)-type responses. We also find, however, that modest heating of the midlatitude boundary layer drives a similar response; heating at high latitudes provokes a weaker, equatorward shift and tropical heating produces no shift. Over 70 % of the variance in annual mean jet displacements across 27 experiments is accounted for by a newly proposed "Expansion Index", which compares mid-latitude tropospheric warming to that at other latitudes. We find that previously proposed factors, including tropopause height and tropospheric stability, do not fully explain the results. Results suggest recently observed tropical expansion could have been driven not only by stratospheric cooling, but also by mid-latitude heating sources due for example to ozone or aerosol changes.